The week of June 8 to June 12, 2026 runs five sessions inside the FOMC communications blackout ahead of the June 17 to 18 meeting. The data point that matters is May CPI on Wednesday. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls print at 88,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.3% and average hourly earnings at 0.2% month-over-month moved the September cut probability from 58% to 79%, and Wednesday’s CPI is the next clean input that can either lock that in or pull it back.
Monday opens quietly. The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations lands at 11:00 ET. The one-year inflation expectation has held at 3.1% for three consecutive months, off the 3.6% peak from the early-tariff window in February. The three-year and five-year series have stayed anchored at 2.7% and 2.8%, which is the part the Committee actually reads. April wholesale inventories (revised) round out the slate.
Tuesday brings the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May. The April reading at 94.1 sat below the 52-year average of 98.0 for the twentieth consecutive month, with “quality of labor” replaced by “cost of inputs” as the single most important problem for the first time since mid-2022. A second month with inputs leading would line up with the ISM Manufacturing prices-paid reading at 65.7 in April and 64.2 in May. The 3-year Treasury auction at 1:00 ET is the first of the week’s three coupon auctions and will price into the post-NFP curve repricing.
Wednesday is the data point. May CPI releases at 8:30 ET. April headline ran 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest print since May 2023, with core at 2.8%. The acceleration in headline was the tariff-pass-through line analysts had been previewing for two quarters. The consensus build for May headline sits near 3.7% with core at 2.8%, which would be a one-tenth cool on headline and unchanged on core. The configuration the September cut needs is headline at 3.6% or below with core at 0.2% month-over-month. The configuration that pulls the cut probability back below 60% is headline at 3.9% or above with core at 0.3% month-over-month. The 10-year Treasury auction reopening prices at 1:00 ET, followed by the Treasury Monthly Budget Statement at 2:00 ET. The May statement should show the fifth consecutive month of net-interest outlays running above defense outlays, which is the fiscal-arithmetic line atpercent has flagged through the spring.
Thursday delivers May PPI, weekly jobless claims, and the 30-year Treasury auction reopening. PPI matters here for two reasons. The services components that feed directly into the core PCE calculation (portfolio management, healthcare, transportation services) print as part of the release, and they are what shift the June 27 PCE estimate from the CPI read. Initial claims have held in the 220K to 240K range for nine consecutive weeks. Continuing claims at 1.83 million for the week of May 30 sit at the highest level since November 2021. A continuing-claims print above 1.85 million would be the cleanest real-time corroboration of the softening the May payrolls revision pattern has shown.
Friday closes with the preliminary June University of Michigan consumer sentiment and the May import and export prices. The five-year inflation expectation in the Michigan survey ticked to 3.2% in the final May reading, the highest since 1995. That print is the one Powell has cited in three of the last four press conferences as the reason the Committee will not pre-commit to a cut path. A move back to 3.0% or below would soften the qualitative case for waiting. Import prices have been the cleanest pre-CPI read on tariff pass-through. The April import-price index ex petroleum printed 0.7% month-over-month, the largest single-month move since the pre-pandemic tariff round in early 2019.
The Fed is silent this week. The June 17 to 18 meeting delivers the rate decision (no cut) and the updated Summary of Economic Projections. The March SEP showed a median of 1.5 cuts in 2026 and 2.5 cuts in 2027. The post-NFP curve is pricing 1.8 cuts in 2026 and 3.1 cuts in 2027. If the June dot plot moves the 2026 median to 2 cuts, the curve is roughly correctly priced. If it stays at 1.5, the curve has run ahead. If it moves to 2.5, the long end repprices lower and the dollar repprices weaker through the meeting close.
Fed funds futures came into Friday’s close pricing September cut at 79%, second 2026 cut at 32%, two-year yield at 3.71%, and ten-year at 4.12%. May CPI is the only release this week that can move all four numbers at once.