Shelter inflation is 4.8% in the April 2026 CPI reading. New-lease asking rents have been flat or declining for 18 months. The official measure is still catching up. When it does, the Fed's job is mostly done.
A 25% tariff on $400B of imports does not raise inflation by 25%. It raises prices on those specific goods by some fraction of 25%, filtered through how much of that category is imported and how much of the tariff gets absorbed by margins. The aggregate CPI impact is a few tenths of a point.
The DXY index, which measures the dollar against a basket of developed-market currencies, is down about 6% from its January 2026 peak. This matters for import prices, corporate earnings, and the debt ceiling math — in different directions.
Congress is approaching its statutory debt ceiling again. The ceiling has been raised 78 times since 1960. It has never actually constrained spending; Congress appropriates spending and then must allow borrowing to cover it. The ritual costs real money in elevated borrowing costs every time it plays out.
@% publishes short macroeconomic articles. The number, the context, why it moved. Most macro journalism buries one data point under fifteen paragraphs. We do the opposite. Published by AT Media Group. No stock picks. No padding.
