The August 10 to 14 week runs the highest-weight inflation window on the calendar between the July 30 FOMC hold and the September 16 to 17 decision, with July CPI at 8:30 ET Wednesday August 12, July PPI at 8:30 ET Thursday August 13, and July retail sales, industrial production, and University of Michigan preliminary August sentiment all landing Friday August 14. The desk carries the September cut probability at 92 percent into Sunday’s close, down seven points on the week off the ISM services employment print at 47.4 and the July NFP headline at minus 23 thousand with May and June revised down 103 thousand combined. The Friday cash close on the strip walks the read into Wednesday morning as a one-print distribution: supercore inside the low-3 percent three-month annualized band walks the September cut inside 97 percent, while supercore back through 4 percent three-month annualized reopens the front-end for the first time since May.

The Tuesday position-setter

Tuesday August 11 runs the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July at 6:00 ET, the only pre-CPI print on the calendar with a live read into Wednesday’s release. The June NFIB print landed at 98.6 with the compensation plans sub-index at plus 21 percent net and the prices raised net at plus 25 percent. The two sub-indices that carry independent signal into the CPI supercore print are the compensation plans line (leads services wages by roughly two quarters) and the prices raised net (contemporaneous small-business services pricing signal, weighted heavier by the BLS supercore basket than the headline retail sample). A July compensation plans net at or below 18 percent confirms the labor-market softening the ISM services employment print already flagged. A July prices raised net back through 28 percent walks the CPI supercore consensus wider by two to three basis points before the release.

The Wednesday CPI print

Wednesday August 12 runs July CPI at 8:30 ET. The higher-signal line inside the release is core services excluding shelter, the supercore print the Fed reads against because it strips the categories that are either mechanical (shelter, lagging observable market rents by twelve to eighteen months) or supply-side driven (energy, food). The June supercore print landed at plus 0.16 percent month over month with the three-month annualized rate at 3.4 percent, walking two ticks lower than the May reading. The desk supercore band for the July print carries a plus 0.12 to plus 0.22 percent month-over-month range, mapped off the June services PPI at plus 0.19 percent, the June ECI services line at plus 0.9 percent for the quarter, and the flash services PMI input prices sub-index at 55.4 for July.

Three read-throughs sit on the release:

  • Supercore three-month annualized inside the 3.0 to 3.5 percent band walks the September cut probability from Sunday’s 92 percent to inside 97 percent and closes the door on the two-sided distribution the Friday NFP opened. The strip prices this as the modal outcome inside the current band.
  • Supercore three-month annualized back through 4.0 percent walks the September cut probability out of 92 percent and inside the 75 to 82 percent band, opening the front-end distribution for the first time since the June supercore print at plus 0.16 percent walked it closed in mid-June.
  • Core goods carries the tariff pass-through read. The June core goods line landed at plus 0.15 percent month over month, the third consecutive positive print after eleven months of flat-to-negative reads through 2025 and early 2026. A July core goods print at or above plus 0.20 percent walks the year-end 2026 core PCE track from the current 2.8 percent nowcast toward 3.0 percent and carries into the Q4 balance-of-risks paragraph the September statement will draft.

Powell is not scheduled through the release. The December 10 second cut probability at Sunday’s 62 percent close will reprice within four minutes of the 8:30 ET wire.

The Thursday PPI and jobless claims dual window

Thursday August 13 runs July PPI at 8:30 ET and weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending August 8 on the same wire. The PPI release carries most of its signal through the healthcare services PPI, the portfolio management fee PPI, and the transportation services PPI, the three sub-indices that feed the core PCE weight directly. A healthcare services PPI print running two-tenths above what the CPI medical services line implied Wednesday walks the July core PCE nowcast up two to four basis points against consensus before the release lands July 30. Initial claims held the 215 to 232 thousand channel for eight consecutive weeks through the July 25 print at 219 thousand. Any print through 240 thousand would confirm the labor-market softening the ISM services employment and July NFP prints already flagged. Any print back below 215 thousand walks the September cut probability back through the two-sided range Wednesday’s CPI opened or closed.

The Friday triple print

Friday August 14 runs July retail sales at 8:30 ET, July industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 ET, and University of Michigan preliminary August consumer sentiment and one-year and five-year inflation expectations at 10:00 ET. Three independent reads land inside 90 minutes.

Retail sales reads through the control group, the line that excludes autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services and feeds the personal consumption expenditure services line into the Q3 GDP nowcast. The June control group landed at plus 0.45 percent month over month with the three-month annualized pace at plus 3.8 percent. A July control group print inside the plus 0.2 to plus 0.5 percent consensus band holds the Q3 GDP nowcast at the current plus 2.4 percent Atlanta Fed GDPNow read. A print through plus 0.7 percent walks the nowcast toward 3.0 percent and pulls the September cut probability inside 95 percent independent of Wednesday’s CPI outcome.

Industrial production carries the manufacturing-side confirmation of the ISM manufacturing print at 55.6 (highest since 2022). The June IP print landed at plus 0.4 percent month over month with capacity utilization at 77.9 percent. A July IP print holding at or above plus 0.3 percent confirms the manufacturing-side strength that the ISM headline flagged and cuts against the services-side softening that the ISM services employment line at 47.4 opened.

University of Michigan preliminary August carries the one-year inflation expectations line as the higher-signal print inside the release. The July final one-year expectation landed at 3.1 percent, one tick above the twelve-month median. The five-year expectation at 3.0 percent printed at the twelve-month high and carries a one-tick moving band against a Fed that has repeatedly flagged five-year expectation anchoring as the primary transmission channel it prices against.

What the sequence carries

The desk reads the week as a two-day event window anchored on Wednesday’s CPI release and Friday’s triple print, with Tuesday’s NFIB print and Thursday’s PPI and claims print carrying position-setter weight rather than needle-moving weight on their own. The September cut probability at 92 percent Sunday close is a wider two-sided distribution than the strip has priced since May, and the CPI supercore print resolves it either inside 97 percent (modal) or inside 82 percent (tail). The December 10 second cut probability at 62 percent carries the sequence weight: any combination of CPI supercore below 0.15 percent month over month, PPI healthcare services soft, and Friday retail sales control group at or below 0.3 percent walks the December read toward 75 percent by Friday’s cash close.

The single highest-weight moment inside the week is the 8:30 ET wire Wednesday August 12. Everything on the calendar prices through it.

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