The US cash Treasury tape opens Monday August 10 at 8:00 ET into a two-print pre-CPI window, with NFIB Small Business Optimism for July at 6:00 ET Tuesday the only release on the tape before July CPI at 8:30 ET Wednesday August 12. The September 17 cut sits at 92 percent at Sunday’s close, seven points lower on the week off Friday’s July NFP headline at minus 23 thousand and the ISM services employment print at 47.4. The December 10 second cut sits at 62 percent and the March 2027 third cut at 51 percent, both twelve-month highs. The strip prices the week against a single line: CPI supercore three-month annualized inside the 3.0 to 3.5 percent band walks the September cut inside 97 percent and supercore back through 4.0 percent walks it inside the 75 to 82 percent range.

The overnight tape into the 8 ET cash open

Sunday Globex has run the September ten-year note future inside a 112-16 to 112-24 half-point band, mapping an implied ten-year cash yield range of 3.94 to 3.98 percent, one to two basis points tighter than Friday’s cash close at 3.99 percent. The two-year cash-equivalent implied off the September Schatz sits at 3.68 percent overnight, two basis points tighter than Friday’s close and the tightest print since April 24. The 2s10s at 31 basis points overnight is unchanged from Friday’s close at 30 and holds inside the 28 to 34 basis point channel the strip has carried since the July 30 statement.

The December 2026 SR3 implied a year-end funds rate of 3.62 percent at Sunday’s close, three basis points lower on the week and the twelve-month low. The December 2027 SR3 at an implied 2.98 percent terminal printed the twelve-month low on Friday and held it through Sunday. The DXY at 99.4 on Friday’s close ran a 99.2 to 99.6 band through Sunday Globex and prints the softest close since April 14, six-tenths lower on the week.

The level the cash tape has to hold through the 10:00 ET session open is the 3.94 percent floor on the ten-year. A break through the floor before Tuesday’s NFIB print reads as continuation of Friday’s post-NFP rally and pulls the December second cut past 68 percent into Wednesday’s CPI. A break of the 4.02 percent ceiling on the ten-year through Tuesday’s cash tape walks the December second cut back inside 55 percent and reads as fade at the two-cut year the strip carried into Friday’s close.

Tuesday NFIB at 6 ET is the only pre-CPI print

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July releases Tuesday August 11 at 6:00 ET, twenty-six and a half hours before Wednesday’s CPI print and the only release the strip has to absorb inside the window. The June NFIB headline landed at 98.6, the fourth consecutive month at or above 98 and the highest three-month average since March 2025. Two sub-indices carry independent signal into Wednesday’s CPI supercore line.

The compensation plans net percent at plus 21 percent in June leads services wages by roughly two quarters through the historical fit and reads directly into the CPI supercore services line and the ECI services line the September SEP will incorporate. A July compensation plans print at or below plus 18 percent confirms the labor-market softening the ISM services employment print at 47.4 flagged Wednesday August 5 and the July NFP headline at minus 23 thousand confirmed Friday August 8. A July compensation plans print holding at plus 21 percent flags a small-business wage backdrop that has not yet turned and cuts against the two-cut year the strip carries.

The prices raised net percent at plus 25 percent in June is the contemporaneous small-business services pricing signal, weighted heavier by the BLS supercore basket than the wider retail sample. A July prices raised net through plus 28 percent walks the CPI supercore consensus wider by two to three basis points before Wednesday’s release and pulls the September cut probability out of the current 92 percent band. A July prices raised net at or below plus 23 percent confirms the services-side pricing moderation and reads as consistent with the strip’s supercore band at plus 0.12 to plus 0.22 percent month over month.

The two lines the desk prices against into Wednesday

The CPI supercore print at 8:30 ET Wednesday August 12 resolves the two-sided distribution the July NFP opened. The June supercore at plus 0.16 percent month over month and 3.4 percent three-month annualized walked two ticks off May and held the September cut inside 99 percent through the pre-NFP tape. The desk band for July at plus 0.12 to plus 0.22 percent carries a modal outcome inside the 3.0 to 3.5 percent three-month annualized band, which the strip prices as consistent with the two-cut year and the current September probability at 92 percent. The tail at supercore three-month annualized back through 4.0 percent opens the front-end distribution for the first time since the June supercore print walked it closed in mid-June.

The core goods print carries the tariff pass-through read the desk has watched through three consecutive positive months. The June core goods line at plus 0.15 percent month over month was the third straight positive read after eleven months of flat-to-negative prints through 2025 and early 2026. A July core goods print at or above plus 0.20 percent walks the year-end 2026 core PCE nowcast from the current 2.8 percent track toward 3.0 percent and carries into the balance-of-risks paragraph the September statement will draft.

What the two-print window resolves

Tuesday’s NFIB print sets the sub-index positioning into Wednesday’s CPI release, and Wednesday’s CPI supercore print resolves the September cut probability from the current 92 percent to either inside 97 percent (modal) or inside 82 percent (tail). The December 10 second cut at 62 percent carries the sequence weight. Any combination of NFIB compensation plans at or below plus 18 percent, CPI supercore inside plus 0.15 percent month over month, and PPI healthcare services soft (Thursday August 13) walks the December read past 75 percent by Thursday’s cash close.

The single highest-weight moment inside the pre-CPI window is the 6:00 ET wire Tuesday August 11. Everything on the Monday and Tuesday tape prices through it into Wednesday.

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