The May Survey of Consumer Expectations from the New York Fed prints at 11:00 ET today, the only data release on the Monday calendar and the last consumer-side inflation read before Wednesday’s May CPI. The release lands inside the FOMC communications blackout ahead of the June 17 to 18 meeting, with the September cut at 79% after Friday’s soft 88,000 payrolls print.
The one-year inflation expectation has held at 3.1% for three consecutive months, off the 3.6% peak from the February tariff-pass-through window. The three-year series sits at 2.7% and the five-year at 2.8%, the anchored part Powell has cited as the reason the Committee can wait. A one-year print at 3.0% or below softens the qualitative case for holding into September. A move back toward 3.3% or higher lines up with the April import-price index ex petroleum at 0.7% month-over-month and feeds the hawkish read on Wednesday’s CPI. The three-year line is the one to watch for any anchoring slippage; a tick above 2.8% is the first since the early-tariff window broke.