The NYSE, Nasdaq, and SIFMA-recommended bond market close Friday for the Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday. This is the fifth full federal observance since the 2021 designation. The cash tape is dark. Globex equity index futures trade a shortened session through 1:00 ET. CME interest rate futures close at 1:00 ET. The data calendar runs empty Friday.

The week that opens Monday is the standard month-end calendar. The release that matters is May PCE on Friday June 26 at 8:30 ET. It is the first inflation print the federal funds curve gets after Wednesday’s FOMC statement, the Summary of Economic Projections, and the dot plot.

Where the curve sits going in

Thursday’s 8:30 ET data window covered initial jobless claims, May housing starts and permits, the June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for May at 10:00 ET. The September cut probability sat near the 88% band after Wednesday’s SEP printed. The 2-year yield carried into Thursday’s close around 3.65%. The 10-year sat near 4.08%. The 30-year held above 4.40%. 2s10s stayed around 49 basis points. DXY held near the 102.8 line.

The setup into next week is a curve that has spent the FOMC week absorbing the dot plot and the first post-meeting data without a clean inflation read. May PCE is that read.

Monday: existing home sales, May

The National Association of Realtors release prints at 10:00 ET. April existing home sales ran at a 4.05 million annualized rate, the weakest April reading since 2010. The series has spent eleven consecutive months under the 4.2 million breakeven the NAR identifies as the long-run replacement level. Months of supply sat at 4.4 in April. Median sales price held at $407,200, up 1.8% year-over-year.

The line the rate strategists are reading is the distance between the 30-year fixed at 6.72% and the average homeowner mortgage rate around 4.1%. That 262 basis point gap is the lock-in spread that has kept existing inventory off the market for three years. A May print below 4.0 million annualized would mark twelve consecutive months under the breakeven and tightens the link between shelter inflation and rate-channel monetary policy.

Tuesday: Case-Shiller, FHFA, Conference Board confidence, new home sales

The morning runs four releases. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller for April prints at 9:00 ET. The 20-city composite sat at 5.4% year-over-year in March. The FHFA Home Price Index for April runs the same hour. Conference Board Consumer Confidence for June lands at 10:00 ET against a May headline at 101.3 and a present situation read at 143.4. The expectations subindex at 72.8 has held below the 80 recession threshold for sixteen consecutive months without a recession arriving, the longest such stretch in the series.

New home sales for May prints at 10:00 ET. April ran at a 698,000 annualized rate, the softest April since 2022. Inventory sat at 481,000 units, the highest absolute level since 2007. The line the housing strategists are watching is the median new home sales price at $408,200, which has converged on the existing-home median for the first time on record. The cross signals that the builder discount that opened in 2024 has closed.

Wednesday: Q1 GDP third estimate, durable goods

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the third estimate of Q1 2026 GDP at 8:30 ET. The second estimate held the headline at 2.1% annualized, with personal consumption at 1.7% and fixed investment at 3.4%. Revisions at the third release are typically inside 0.2 points. The line the market reads is gross domestic income, which printed at 1.4% in the second estimate against the 2.1% GDP headline, the third consecutive quarter with a GDI-GDP gap above 0.5 points.

Durable goods orders for May follows at 8:30 ET. April ex-transportation ran at plus 0.4%. Core capex, the nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft line, has printed flat or negative for four of the last six months. The line that matters for the business investment read in Q2 GDP is the core capex shipments series, which sets the structures and equipment contribution.

Thursday: claims, advance trade, wholesale inventories

The DOL ETA release prints at 8:30 ET with the week ending June 20 claims read. The four-week moving average sits near the 226,000 band that has anchored the spring drift. Continuing claims, on a one-week lag, runs against the 1.84 million mark.

The advance May trade in goods lands at 8:30 ET. The April advance ran at negative $87.6 billion, narrower than the negative $92 billion February print and consistent with the post-tariff goods import slowdown. Advance wholesale inventories for May runs the same window.

Friday: May PCE

The Bureau of Economic Analysis release prints at 8:30 ET. The April PCE held headline at 2.3% year-over-year and core PCE at 2.6%. The three-month annualized core sat at 2.4%, the softest reading on that frame since the spring of 2024. Services ex-housing, the supercore line the Fed reads, held at 3.2% annualized over the three-month window.

The base effect math is the tell. May 2025 core PCE printed at 0.2% month-over-month. A May 2026 core print at 0.15% holds the year-over-year line flat at 2.6%. A 0.22% print ticks the year-over-year up to 2.7%. A 0.10% print rolls year-over-year down to 2.5%. The 3.6 basis point window between those three outcomes is what the front end of the curve is repricing on Friday morning.

The September 17 cut probability at 88% is the variable. A 0.10% core month-over-month with supercore rolling under 3.0% locks the strip and pulls the December 16 cut to a coin flip. A 0.25% or hotter core with supercore holding at 3.2% pulls September back toward the 78% band the curve carried into the CPI and PPI prints earlier in June. The June 27 release calendar is empty. The next data is the July 3 nonfarm payrolls print, which lands on the Thursday before the July 4 holiday close.