The week of June 29 to July 3 runs a four-day cash session. The NYSE, Nasdaq, and the SIFMA-recommended bond market close Friday July 3 for the July 4 observed holiday, with the actual Independence Day falling on Saturday. The cash tape is dark Friday. Globex equity index futures trade a shortened session through 1:00 ET Thursday. CME interest rate futures also close early Thursday.

The data sequence the curve carries in is anchored by June nonfarm payrolls on Thursday July 2 at 8:30 ET, pulled forward one day from the standard first-Friday slot. JOLTS lands Tuesday. ADP and ISM Manufacturing print Wednesday. The September 17 cut probability closed Friday at 93 percent after the 0.16 percent May core PCE print, up from 88 percent the prior week.

Where the curve sits going in

Friday closed with the 2-year yield near 3.62 percent, three basis points lower on the week against the May PCE print. The 10-year held at 4.04 percent. The 30-year sat at 4.38 percent. 2s10s widened to 52 basis points. DXY rolled to 102.4. The September strip carries an implied 24 basis point cut at the September 17 meeting against the 25 basis point benchmark, the firmest September pricing since the spring CPI sequence.

The setup into Thursday is a curve that has spent two weeks bidding the front end into a softening inflation read without an offsetting growth print. The June jobs report is that growth print.

Monday: pending home sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing

The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index for May lands at 10:00 ET. April pending sales ran at 70.2, the third consecutive monthly reading below the 75 line the NAR identifies as the long-run equilibrium. The series leads existing sales by one to two months, and the April 4.05 million annualized existing sales print Monday’s calendar already prices.

The Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for June prints at 10:30 ET. The May general activity index sat at negative 19.4, the eleventh consecutive monthly contraction print. The line the regional Fed strategists are reading is the production subindex, which held above zero in May at plus 1.8, the divergence between sentiment and actual output that has run through the Texas series since the spring.

Tuesday: quarter-end, Case-Shiller, Chicago PMI, Conference Board confidence, JOLTS

The morning runs a four-print sequence into the Q2 month-end and quarter-end window. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller April prints at 9:00 ET against the 20-city composite at 5.4 percent year-over-year. The FHFA Home Price Index for April runs the same hour.

The MNI Chicago PMI for June lands at 9:45 ET against a May print of 43.6, the seventeenth consecutive month below the 50 expansion line. Conference Board Consumer Confidence for June lands at 10:00 ET against May headline at 101.3.

JOLTS for May runs at 10:00 ET. The April job openings print at 7.41 million held above the 7.2 million pre-pandemic equilibrium that the labor strategists read as the inflection level. The quits rate at 2.0 percent has held at the post-pandemic floor for five consecutive months. The hires rate at 3.5 percent sits one tick above the long-run series average. The line the Fed reads is the vacancy-to-unemployed ratio at 1.07, which has compressed steadily from the 2.0 peak in early 2022 toward the pre-pandemic 1.2 band.

The Q2 quarter-end runs through the Tuesday 4:00 ET close. The MSCI Quality and MSCI Momentum index rebalances run after the close. Quarter-end positioning historically pulls 0.5 to 0.8 percent of single-stock turnover into the final hour.

Wednesday: ADP, ISM Manufacturing, construction spending

The ADP National Employment Report for June lands at 8:15 ET, the first private read on the labor month. The May ADP print of 152,000 ran below the 172,000 NFP headline, the third consecutive month with ADP underprinting NFP by more than 15,000. The correlation between ADP and the same-month BLS print has run at 0.42 over the last twelve releases, which sets the limit on how much the front end can move on the Wednesday morning number alone.

ISM Manufacturing PMI for June prints at 10:00 ET. The May headline at 48.7 marked the seventh consecutive monthly contraction. The new orders subindex at 45.4 has held below 50 for eight months. The prices paid index at 57.0 held above the 55 inflation passthrough threshold for the third consecutive month, the line the inflation strategists read for the goods sector contribution to core PCE.

Construction spending for May lands at 10:00 ET. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI final June print runs at 9:45 ET as the parallel reference series.

Thursday: June nonfarm payrolls, claims, factory orders

The BLS Employment Situation Summary for June prints at 8:30 ET, the only payroll print this calendar quarter to land on a Thursday. The May NFP headline of 172,000 sat right at the 6-month moving average of 170,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent for the fifth consecutive month, the longest stretch at a single tenth since the 2018 to 2019 plateau. Average hourly earnings ran at 0.27 percent month-over-month and 3.9 percent year-over-year. The labor force participation rate at 62.6 percent held at the post-pandemic plateau.

The line the strip reads is the three-month moving average of payroll gains, which sat at 168,000 after the May print. A June print at 150,000 with unemployment at 4.1 percent holds the September 93 percent and pulls the December 16 cut toward the 70 percent band. A 100,000 print or softer with unemployment ticking to 4.2 percent prices a second cut at September outright. A 220,000 print with the unemployment rate rolling back to 4.0 percent pulls September toward the 75 percent band.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27 prints at 8:30 ET, pulled forward one day from the Friday slot. The four-week moving average sits near the 224,000 band. Continuing claims, on a one-week lag, runs against the 1.85 million mark. The trade balance for May lands at 8:30 ET. Factory orders for May prints at 10:00 ET. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report runs at the standard 3:30 ET window.

Cash markets close at the standard 4:00 ET Thursday close. Globex equity index futures trade through 1:00 ET Friday. CME interest rate futures close at 1:00 ET Friday.

Friday: closed

The cash tape is dark. The SIFMA-recommended bond market observes the July 4 holiday with markets closed. The data calendar runs empty. The next release is ISM Services for June on Monday July 6 at 10:00 ET.

The compression matters because it strips out the Friday position-cleaning window the curve has used for the last twelve payroll prints. A surprise in either direction on Thursday morning runs into a one-session reaction window before three days of closed markets. The convention on Thursday afternoon trades has historically run heavier than the Friday-after-NFP convention, with the 2-year on-the-run typically printing 1.5 to 2.0 times the standard daily range in the three-hour window after the print. The position that the curve carries into the long weekend is set by noon Thursday.