The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas releases the June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Monday at 10:30 ET. The print is the final regional Fed manufacturing read before ISM Manufacturing lands Wednesday at 10:00 ET, and the Dallas series carries a heavier weighting on the energy sector than the Empire State, Philly Fed, Richmond, or Kansas City surveys.

The General Business Activity index held at minus 16.3 in May, the fourteenth consecutive negative monthly reading and the longest run below zero since the 2015 to 2016 oil-price drawdown. The Production index sat at minus 4.1 and the New Orders index at minus 7.8, with the Prices Paid for Raw Materials index at 35.2 holding above the 2019 average near 22 for the eighth straight month. The combination, contracting demand against still-elevated input prices, is the configuration the regional Fed surveys have run since the spring.

The June reads already on the board: Empire State at minus 6.0 on June 16, Philly Fed at minus 4.0 on June 18. Both pulled the regional composite the strip uses for ISM triangulation toward the 48 to 49 band against the May ISM headline at 48.5. A Dallas General Business Activity print above minus 12 extends the regional improvement and pushes the ISM nowcast toward 49. A reading at minus 18 or below breaks the pattern and pulls the nowcast back toward 47.5.

The line inside the Dallas release that matters separately for the FOMC read is the Future Production index, the six-month forward expectation. The series sat at 17.4 in May, above the long-run average near 35 but well off the minus 5 floor reached in September 2023. A June Future Production reading above 25 is the first signal in the regional Fed data that manufacturers are pricing the September cut into the forward order book. A reading below 10 is the opposite signal and keeps the manufacturing recession framing alive into the Wednesday FOMC minutes.

The Prices Paid subindex carries separately as a tariff pass-through proxy. The Dallas survey asks respondents the price they paid for raw materials in the current month against the prior month. The May reading at 35.2 sat well above the pre-tariff 2019 average of 22 and tracked the CPI Goods ex-Food and Energy line that printed at 0.31 percent month-over-month in May. A June Prices Paid reading above 38 flags continued pass-through into the July CPI print due July 15. A reading below 30 is the first regional Fed signal that the tariff price layer is rolling off the goods side.

Sources