The US macro tape ran five sessions of quiet data from Monday July 6 through Friday July 10 into the four-session runway that opens Monday July 13 and closes at the June CPI print at 8:30 ET Wednesday July 15. The two prints that carried the week: Wednesday Waller remarks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Fed G.19 May consumer credit release, and Thursday weekly initial jobless claims at 228 thousand paired with Census May monthly wholesale trade at plus 0.2 percent month-over-month. Both prints landed inside the pre-release consensus bands. The two-year Treasury closed Friday at 3.52 percent. Fed-funds futures closed the week with the September 17 cut probability at 97 percent, unchanged from the prior Friday close, and the December 10 second cut probability at 55 percent, up two points on the week.

The Wednesday dual window

Wednesday July 8 carried the two Tier-1 reads on the week’s calendar. Governor Christopher Waller delivered remarks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics at 10:00 ET. The labor-cooling framing ran through the prepared text and the moderated question sequence that followed. Waller flagged the four-week average of initial jobless claims at 231 thousand as the marker series inside the pre-July NFP window, and pointed to the continuing claims band at 1.82 to 1.90 million as the second-derivative read on hiring intensity. The two-year repriced from 3.55 percent at the Wednesday open to 3.51 percent on the Waller close, a four basis point move that mapped the September cut probability from 95 percent to 97 percent on the intraday tape.

The Federal Reserve G.19 May consumer credit print landed at 3:00 PM ET. Total consumer credit rose 8.4 billion dollars on the May print, inside the 7 to 12 billion consensus band. The revolving credit line printed plus 3.2 billion, one tick above the three-month average of plus 2.9 billion. The non-revolving credit line printed plus 5.2 billion, in line with the 12-month average of plus 5.5 billion. The print rounded the Wednesday two-print sequence without moving the strip off the Waller close.

The Thursday claims and wholesale trade window

Thursday July 9 ran the 8:30 ET weekly claims and 10:00 ET wholesale trade dual print. Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4 landed at 228 thousand, inside the 228 to 235 thousand consensus band and one thousand below the prior four-week average of 231 thousand. The continuing claims series for the reference week ending June 27 printed 1.87 million, inside the 1.82 to 1.90 million three-month band. The seasonal-factor smoothing through the July 4 holiday held the raw print inside the 215 to 245 thousand post-holiday historical window without a spillover into the four-week average.

Census May wholesale inventories printed plus 0.2 percent month-over-month, in line with the April final at plus 0.3 percent and inside the two-basis-point historical revision band. The inventory-to-sales ratio printed 1.32, inside the 1.31 to 1.33 twelve-month range. The print delivered the final wholesale trade input to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker ahead of the advance Q2 GDP release scheduled for 8:30 ET Wednesday July 30, the same day as the July FOMC statement. GDPNow closed Thursday at plus 2.1 percent, unchanged on the wholesale print.

The Friday quiet close

Friday July 10 ran no Tier-1 US macro release. The session closed the week without a data catalyst and held the strip at the Thursday close. The US Treasury 30-year reopening auction cleared inside the pre-auction concession band on the Thursday afternoon, and the 10-year benchmark closed Friday at 4.16 percent. The 2s10s slope closed the week at 64 basis points, three basis points steeper than the prior Friday close. The 5s30s closed at 28 basis points, one basis point flatter on the week.

The four-session pre-CPI runway

Monday July 13 opens the four-session runway to the June CPI print at 8:30 ET Wednesday July 15. The prints inside the window:

  • Monday July 13: NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations for July at 11:00 ET. The June print held the one-year median inflation expectation at 3.1 percent, inside the 2.9 to 3.2 percent twelve-month band. The three-year median held at 2.9 percent, one tick above the pre-tariff-cycle baseline.
  • Tuesday July 14: JOLTS May at 10:00 ET. April openings closed at 7.39 million and the quits rate at 2.1 percent. A May openings print under 7.3 million with a quits rate at or under 2.0 percent would line up with the labor-market loosening the Waller framing pointed to.
  • Wednesday July 15: June CPI at 8:30 ET. The consensus band on core CPI month-over-month sits at 0.24 to 0.27 percent. A print at or under 0.24 percent pushes the December second cut probability through 60 percent. A print at or above 0.28 percent walks the September probability back toward 90 percent.
  • Wednesday July 15: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for July at 8:30 ET on the same wire as CPI.

The June PPI print lands Thursday July 16 at 8:30 ET, the same wire as weekly initial jobless claims. June retail sales print Thursday July 16 at 8:30 ET. Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary July prints Friday July 17 at 10:00 ET.

The Fed calendar heading in

Fed speak is dark from Waller’s Wednesday remarks to the July 30 FOMC statement. The FOMC blackout window opens at midnight Saturday July 19 and holds through the July 30 press conference. That places the CPI print Wednesday, the PPI and retail sales prints Thursday, and the Michigan sentiment print Friday inside the last live speaker window of the pre-FOMC cycle. The July 30 FOMC decision date sits nineteen sessions from Monday’s open. The September 17 FOMC decision date sits fifty-one sessions out.

What the week closed at

  • September 17 cut probability: 97 percent (unchanged on the week).
  • December 10 second cut probability: 55 percent (up two points on the week).
  • Terminal rate read off December 2027 contract: 3.29 percent (unchanged on the week).
  • Two-year Treasury yield: 3.52 percent (down three basis points on the week).
  • Ten-year Treasury yield: 4.16 percent (down two basis points on the week).
  • Thirty-year Treasury yield: 4.72 percent (down one basis point on the week).
  • 2s10s slope: 64 basis points (three basis points steeper on the week).
  • 5s30s slope: 28 basis points (one basis point flatter on the week).

The strip carries a four-session position into the June CPI print. The two variables that shift the configuration: a CPI core print outside the 0.24 to 0.27 percent band, or a JOLTS openings print outside the 7.2 to 7.5 million band on Tuesday. Everything else on the calendar reads through those two lines.