The week of July 13 to 17 opens the four-session runway to the June CPI print at 8:30 ET Wednesday July 15. Monday runs the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations for July at 11:00 ET. Tuesday runs JOLTS May at 10:00 ET. Wednesday pairs June CPI with the Empire State Manufacturing Index for July on a 8:30 ET wire. Thursday runs June PPI, June advance retail sales, and weekly initial jobless claims on a triple 8:30 ET wire, and adds the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook for July at 8:30 ET on the same wire. Friday runs the Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary July print at 10:00 ET. Fed-funds futures closed Friday July 10 with the September 17 cut probability at 97 percent and the December 10 second cut probability at 55 percent. The FOMC blackout window opens midnight Saturday July 19 and holds through the July 30 press conference, which places the CPI, PPI, retail sales, and Michigan prints inside the last live Fed speaker window of the pre-FOMC cycle.

Where the curve sits going in

Friday closed with the two-year Treasury at 3.52 percent, down three basis points on the week. The ten-year closed at 4.16 percent, down two basis points. The thirty-year closed at 4.72 percent, down one basis point. 2s10s closed at 64 basis points, three basis points steeper on the week. 5s30s closed at 28 basis points, one basis point flatter. The December 2027 SR3 contract implies a terminal rate of 3.29 percent, unchanged on the week. The DXY closed at 101.6.

The strip carries a two-week softening trend in the front end into Wednesday’s CPI print. The September cut is priced. The variable that shifts the strip: the core CPI month-over-month print landing outside the 0.24 to 0.27 percent consensus band, or the JOLTS openings print landing outside the 7.2 to 7.5 million band. Everything else on the calendar reads through those two lines.

Monday July 13: NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations

The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations for July lands at 11:00 ET. The June print held the one-year median inflation expectation at 3.1 percent, inside the 2.9 to 3.2 percent twelve-month band the desk reads as anchored. The three-year median held at 2.9 percent, one tick above the pre-tariff-cycle baseline of 2.8 percent. The home price growth expectation at 3.4 percent held at the twelve-month average.

The line the Fed reads on the SCE is the one-year gasoline expectation (up 4.1 percent in June, tenth consecutive monthly reading above 3 percent) and the year-ahead food expectation (up 5.3 percent in June, marker for the tariff passthrough into groceries). A July print with the one-year median above 3.3 percent would complicate the CPI read on Wednesday.

Tuesday July 14: JOLTS May

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May lands at 10:00 ET. The April openings print at 7.39 million held above the 7.2 million pre-pandemic equilibrium the labor strategists read as the inflection level. The quits rate at 2.1 percent held one tick above the post-pandemic floor at 2.0 percent. The hires rate at 3.5 percent sat one tick above the long-run average. The vacancy-to-unemployed ratio at 1.08 compressed from the 1.10 March print, holding the fifteen-month glide path from the 2022 peak of 2.0 toward the pre-pandemic 1.2 band.

A May openings print under 7.3 million with a quits rate at or under 2.0 percent would line up with the labor cooling framing Waller ran through the Peterson Institute remarks last Wednesday. A print above 7.5 million with the quits rate ticking back to 2.2 percent would walk back the September pricing by two to three points on the intraday tape.

Wednesday July 15: June CPI, Empire State Manufacturing, the Tier-1 print of the runway

The BLS Consumer Price Index for June lands at 8:30 ET. The consensus band on core CPI month-over-month sits at 0.24 to 0.27 percent. The headline CPI month-over-month consensus sits at 0.18 to 0.22 percent. The year-over-year core consensus sits at 2.8 to 2.9 percent. The May print landed at 0.24 percent core month-over-month, 2.8 percent core year-over-year, and 0.17 percent headline month-over-month.

The four lines the strip reads on the print:

  • Core services ex-housing (supercore): May printed 0.21 percent month-over-month, the third consecutive print at or under 0.25 percent. A June print at or under 0.20 percent confirms the disinflation carry into the July FOMC.
  • Owners equivalent rent (OER): May printed 0.30 percent month-over-month, on the twelve-month glide path from the 0.42 percent early 2025 band. A print at or under 0.28 percent pushes core month-over-month to the low end of the consensus band.
  • Core goods: May printed plus 0.11 percent month-over-month, the first positive core goods print in seven months. The tariff passthrough runs through this line. A June print above plus 0.15 percent flags the acceleration.
  • Airline fares and lodging: the two-line volatility check. May printed negative 3.1 percent on airline fares and plus 1.4 percent on lodging. A directional shift on either line is not signal.

The December second cut probability at 55 percent is the strip’s reading on the base-case CPI print. A core print at or under 0.24 percent with supercore at or under 0.20 percent pushes the December second cut through 60 percent. A core print at or above 0.28 percent walks the September probability back toward 90 percent and pushes the December second cut back to the 40 percent band. A core print above 0.30 percent puts the September cut itself in play as a repricing question.

The NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index for July prints at 8:30 ET on the CPI wire. The June print at plus 3.2 ran the fourth consecutive month above zero. The line the regional Fed strategists read is the prices paid subindex, which held at 41.6 in June, the ninth consecutive monthly reading above the 35 tariff-passthrough threshold.

Thursday July 16: June PPI, June advance retail sales, weekly claims, Philadelphia Fed

The BLS Producer Price Index for June prints at 8:30 ET. The May headline PPI ran at plus 0.14 percent month-over-month. The core PPI ran at plus 0.20 percent. The line the PCE strategists read for the July 31 PCE print is the PPI final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing category, which fed the May supercore PCE reconciliation at 0.17 percent. A June print at or under plus 0.20 percent on that line points to a June PCE core print at or under 0.20 percent and keeps the December second cut inside the 50 to 60 percent band.

The Census advance monthly retail trade for June prints at 8:30 ET on the PPI wire. The May retail sales headline ran at negative 0.4 percent month-over-month, the third consecutive monthly softening print. The control group (used in the GDP consumption calculation) ran at plus 0.1 percent in May. A June control-group print at or under plus 0.1 percent pulls the Q2 real consumption tracker at Atlanta Fed GDPNow toward plus 1.5 percent annualized, from the current plus 2.1 percent read.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11 print at 8:30 ET. The four-week moving average sits at 231 thousand. The continuing claims series runs on a one-week lag against the 1.87 million June 27 print. The seasonal factor smoothing carries the standard post-holiday adjustment.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook for July prints at 8:30 ET on the triple wire. The June headline at plus 4.8 held the third consecutive positive print. The prices paid subindex at 38.2 held above the 35 tariff-passthrough threshold.

The triple 8:30 ET wire places the entire Thursday setup in the fifteen-minute window before the New York cash open. The convention on triple prints has run the two-year on-the-run at 1.4 to 1.8 times the standard daily range in the first hour.

Friday July 17: Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary July

The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers preliminary July print lands at 10:00 ET. The June final printed at 60.7 headline, up from 58.4 in May. The one-year inflation expectation in June held at 3.1 percent, matching the NY Fed SCE. The five-to-ten year inflation expectation held at 3.0 percent, the twelve-month plateau.

The line the Fed reads on Michigan is the five-to-ten year median. A July preliminary print at or above 3.2 percent on that line lands inside the FOMC blackout window and cannot be walked back by public Fed speaker comment before the July 30 statement.

The Fed calendar heading in

Fed speak is live through the week and goes dark at midnight Saturday July 19. The FOMC blackout window holds through the July 30 press conference. The Tier-1 speakers on the pre-blackout calendar:

  • Monday July 13: New York Fed president Williams at a Council on Foreign Relations event at 12:15 ET.
  • Tuesday July 14: Governor Bowman at an American Bankers Association event at 10:00 ET.
  • Wednesday July 15: Governor Waller at a Brookings Institution event at 2:00 PM ET, post-CPI print, pre-close.
  • Thursday July 16: Chicago Fed president Goolsbee at a Detroit Economic Club luncheon at 12:30 ET.
  • Friday July 18: Vice Chair Jefferson at an IMF panel at 9:00 ET, the final live speaker before blackout.

The July 30 FOMC decision date sits fourteen sessions from Monday’s open. The September 17 FOMC decision date sits forty-six sessions out.

What the strip carries in

  • September 17 cut probability: 97 percent (Friday close).
  • December 10 second cut probability: 55 percent (Friday close).
  • Terminal rate read off December 2027 contract: 3.29 percent.
  • Two-year Treasury yield: 3.52 percent.
  • Ten-year Treasury yield: 4.16 percent.
  • Thirty-year Treasury yield: 4.72 percent.
  • 2s10s slope: 64 basis points.
  • 5s30s slope: 28 basis points.
  • DXY: 101.6.

The two variables that shift the configuration through the week: a core CPI print outside the 0.24 to 0.27 percent band on Wednesday, or a JOLTS openings print outside the 7.2 to 7.5 million band on Tuesday. The retail sales control group on Thursday sets the Q2 GDP tracker but does not carry the front end on its own. The Michigan preliminary on Friday sets the last inflation-expectations read before blackout. Everything else on the calendar reads through those lines.