Beijing customs publishes June trade data Monday July 13 afternoon ET, and the National Bureau of Statistics publishes Q2 GDP with June industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and the 70-city house price index Tuesday July 14 at 22:00 ET (10:00 Beijing Wednesday), all inside the window before the US June CPI print at 8:30 ET Wednesday July 15. May trade balance ran USD 105.43 billion, with exports at USD 376.78 billion (+19.4 percent year-over-year) and imports at USD 271.35 billion (+27.4 percent year-over-year), a record monthly export print driven by the AI hardware channel. Q1 2026 GDP printed 5.0 percent year-over-year, one full point above the 4.5 percent Q4 2025 read, with the Q2 consensus at 4.6 percent. The two lines the US rates strip reads on the Beijing releases are export momentum (a June exports print at or above 17 percent year-over-year confirms the AI passthrough) and retail sales (a June print at or under zero year-over-year confirms the consumption-side weakness the property drag imposes). Trade and activity strong plus consumption weak leaves the yuan tape range-bound into the CPI window.