Headline CPI-U fell 0.4 percent month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, per the BLS release Tuesday July 14 at 8:30 ET. That is the largest single-month decline since April 2020, when the index fell 0.8 percent inside the pandemic shock. The May print, for reference, was plus 0.5 percent. On a 12-month basis, the all-items index rose 3.5 percent through June (not seasonally adjusted), down from 4.2 percent through May. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) was unchanged month-over-month and ran 2.6 percent year-over-year.
The energy index fell 5.7 percent in June after gains of 3.9 percent in May, 3.8 percent in April, and 10.9 percent in March, and was the dominant contributor to the headline decline. Shelter and food indexes rose, but the energy pullback more than offset them at the headline level. The core-flat print, paired with a 2.6 percent year-over-year core reading, is the softest core CPI monthly print since the reopening cycle and clears the second of the two prints the New York Fed’s Williams flagged at the June 26 BIS conference as the condition for a September cut. The next CPI release covers July 2026 and is scheduled for Wednesday August 12 at 8:30 ET.