The June CPI release lands at 8:30 ET Wednesday July 15 from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consensus sits at 0.20 percent month-over-month on headline and 0.25 percent on core, with a 3.0 percent core year-over-year print, unchanged from May. This is the second of the two prints Williams laid out as the condition for a September cut at the June 26 BIS conference, and the first that lands inside the pre-FOMC window before the July 30 decision. Fed-funds futures closed Tuesday with the September 17 cut probability at 97 percent and the December 10 second cut probability at 55 percent, both unchanged from the Monday NY Fed SCE close.
The four lines the desk reads against
Supercore (services ex shelter and ex energy services) at 0.25 percent or below month-over-month. May printed 0.22 percent, the third consecutive month inside the 0.20 to 0.25 percent band the Fed reads as consistent with the 2 percent target on an annualized basis. A June print at 0.28 or higher breaks the pattern and re-opens the sticky-services debate that ran from November 2025 through February 2026. A print at 0.20 or below is the cleanest possible clear on the services line and moves the December second cut probability two to four points higher on the tape.
Owners equivalent rent at 0.30 percent or below. May printed 0.31 percent, one basis point above the band and the second consecutive month easing off the 0.34 percent April print. The Zillow observed rents series and the New Tenant Rent Index both pointed to further deceleration through the second half. A 0.28 to 0.30 June print confirms the shelter drift and clears the largest single-line risk to the Williams two-print condition. Anything at 0.33 or above is the first shelter re-acceleration since December and pulls the September cut probability back one to two points.
Core goods ex used vehicles inside the 0.20 to 0.30 percent band. This is the tariff pass-through line. May printed 0.26 percent, at the middle of the band, and was the single line that carried the 0.24 percent core print. A June print at 0.35 or above is the acceleration case that pairs with the NFIB cost-of-inputs at 24 and ISM Manufacturing prices-paid at 63.1 to argue the tariff wave is still climbing. A print at 0.15 or below is the deceleration case and reads as the first sign the pass-through has crested.
Medical services flat month-over-month, paired with a confirming PPI healthcare services print at 8:30 ET Thursday July 16. May medical services printed at plus 0.14 percent, one of the two lines that let core clear 0.25 percent. The PPI cross-check is the standard proxy for the health-insurance component that gets rebased annually each October. A hot medical services print on Wednesday that PPI confirms Thursday is the small-print risk that most desks under-weight going into the release.
What the print does inside the cut probabilities
Clean sweep across all four lines at consensus or better moves the December second cut probability from 55 percent into the 62 to 65 range, and pulls forward the third cut (currently a March 2027 base case) into the January window on a small share of the curve. The September timing does not move materially from 97 percent.
Three of four clear, one line hot, on either supercore or core goods, holds the September cut at 97 percent and leaves December in the 50 to 55 range. This is the modal read: the desk assigns roughly 45 percent probability to this outcome.
Two-line miss, meaning supercore above 0.28 and core goods above 0.35 together, is the tail case that pulls the September cut probability back into the 85 to 88 range and collapses the December second cut toward 35 to 40 percent. Base rate on the tail: 8 to 12 percent, given the May print, the June ISM sequence, and the NFIB comp-plans reading at 17.
Downside surprise, supercore at 0.20 or below and core at 0.20 or below headline, opens the door to a 50 basis point September cut conversation on the tape. Futures price roughly 17 percent of that outcome into Tuesday’s close. A downside CPI print moves that tail from 17 percent toward the 25 to 28 range and pulls the two-year Treasury yield down 8 to 12 basis points on the day. The two-year closed Tuesday at 3.51 percent.
What the tape trades around the print
The 10-year Treasury cleared Tuesday’s $39 billion reopening at 1:00 ET, with the auction stop and indirect bidder read that lands in the news queue after the close. A firm 10-year reopen paired with a clean CPI print holds the September cut at 97 percent and lets the curve steepen four to six basis points inside the day. A tail on the 10-year paired with a hot CPI print is the pattern that pulls September back from 97 percent for the first time since the June 26 conference.
The FOMC decision is Wednesday July 30, thirteen sessions after the CPI print. The intervening data includes June PPI on Thursday July 16, June retail sales on Thursday July 17, June housing starts on Friday July 18, the July Empire and Philly Fed surveys, and the Q2 GDP advance estimate on Wednesday July 30 at 8:30 ET, ninety minutes before the FOMC statement release. The CPI print sets the anchor. Everything after it reads against the four lines above.