Advance retail and food services sales rose 0.2 percent in June to $768.6 billion, matching consensus, and are up 6.7 percent year over year. The control group (ex-autos, gas, building materials, food services), the input that feeds real PCE goods, rose 0.5 percent on the month and 6.4 percent year over year, a sixth straight monthly gain. Ex-auto and gas came in at +0.4 percent. Gasoline station receipts fell 5.3 percent on lower pump prices, the main drag on the headline; unit-adjusted gasoline volumes were higher. Sporting goods rose 1.3 percent and electronics and appliances rose 0.8 percent. May was revised to +1.0 percent from +0.9 percent. The Census Bureau flagged that the 90 percent confidence interval on the headline change includes zero.
June retail sales up 0.2 percent headline, 0.5 percent control group
Control group +0.5 percent MoM and +6.4 percent YoY carried the underlying trend; a 5.3 percent drop in gasoline receipts held the headline down.
More data releases
Core PCE held at 0.2% in April, headline accelerated to 0.4%, savings rate slid to 2.6%
Core PCE rose 0.2% month over month and 3.3% year over year. Headline PCE accelerated to 0.4% on food and energy. Nominal spending outran flat income, pulling the saving rate to 2.6%.
FOMC week setup: with September cut pricing at 88% and core PCE tracking 0.17%, the June 18 dot plot has to move the 2026 median to 2 cuts to validate the curve
Fed-funds futures closed Friday with the September 17 cut probability at 88% and the 2026 cuts implied by the curve at 1.9, up from 1.5 at the March SEP. The June 18 dot plot is the variable that closes or opens the gap. A 2026 median of 2 cuts ratifies the curve. A median holding at 1.5 with narrower dispersion still tightens the long end. A median moving to 2.5 prints the dollar weaker and the 10-year through 4.00%. Retail sales Tuesday, the SEP at 2:00 ET Wednesday, and Powell's press conference at 2:30 are the three windows the week turns on.
May retail sales advance prints at 8:30 ET, consensus plus 0.3% headline and plus 0.4% control with the dot plot 27 hours out
The May retail sales advance lands at 8:30 ET, the highest-leverage release between the Friday Michigan print and the Wednesday FOMC. Consensus sits at plus 0.3% headline and plus 0.4% control group. The control group is the line that feeds Q2 GDPNow, which the Atlanta Fed carried at plus 1.4% Friday. A control print at plus 0.5 or higher lifts the nowcast above 1.6% and tightens the 2026 dot plot upside. A print at plus 0.2 or lower holds the nowcast under 1.4% and keeps the September cut probability anchored at 88%. Industrial production, NAHB, and business inventories complete the Tuesday calendar inside the Fed blackout.