The US macro tape ran the June CPI print at 8:30 ET Wednesday July 15, the June PPI and June retail sales prints at 8:30 ET Thursday July 16, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary July print at 10:00 ET Friday July 17. Headline CPI dropped 0.4 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted, the largest single-month decline since April 2020, with core at unchanged month-over-month. PPI final demand printed plus 0.1 percent headline and plus 0.2 percent core Thursday, both inside the pre-release consensus band. Advance retail sales landed plus 0.2 percent headline and plus 0.5 percent control group. Fed-funds futures closed the week with the September 17 cut probability at 99 percent inside the SR3 strip, up two points from the prior Friday close, and the December 10 second cut probability at 65 percent, up ten points on the week. The FOMC blackout window opens at midnight Saturday July 18 and holds through the Powell press conference Wednesday July 30.

The Wednesday CPI clear

June CPI printed at 8:30 ET Wednesday July 15. Headline CPI-U fell 0.4 percent month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest single-month decline since April 2020. The May print, for reference, was plus 0.5 percent. On a 12-month basis, the all-items index rose 3.5 percent through June (not seasonally adjusted), down from 4.2 percent through May. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) was unchanged month-over-month and ran 2.6 percent year-over-year, one tick below the May print of 2.7 percent.

The energy line carried the bulk of the headline move. Energy commodities fell 6.8 percent on the month on a seasonally adjusted basis, with gasoline down 7.2 percent on the retail pump series. Food at home printed plus 0.1 percent and food away from home printed plus 0.2 percent. Core goods ex used vehicles printed minus 0.1 percent, holding the run of five straight months at or below zero. Core services printed plus 0.2 percent, with shelter at plus 0.2 percent on the OER-weighted line and the medical services line at plus 0.4 percent.

The two-year Treasury repriced from 3.52 percent at the Tuesday close to 3.43 percent on the CPI print, a nine basis point move that carried the September 17 cut probability from 97 percent to 98 percent on the intraday tape. The five-year printed 3.68 percent and the ten-year closed the day at 4.06 percent, ten basis points tighter to the Tuesday close.

The Thursday PPI and retail sales dual window

Thursday July 16 ran the 8:30 ET PPI and retail sales dual print. PPI final demand printed plus 0.1 percent month-over-month headline and plus 0.2 percent core (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services), both landing inside the 0.10 percent headline and 0.20 percent core consensus bands. Twelve-month readings sat at 2.4 percent headline and 2.7 percent core. The three cross-check lines against Tuesday’s CPI all confirmed: PPI healthcare services ran in line with the CPI medical services print, PPI final demand goods confirmed the CPI core goods ex used vehicles line, and PPI final demand services ex trade and transportation ran in line with the CPI supercore read.

Advance retail and food services sales for June printed plus 0.2 percent month-over-month to 768.6 billion dollars, matching consensus, and ran plus 6.7 percent year-over-year. The control group (ex-autos, gas, building materials, food services), the input that feeds the real PCE goods line inside the GDP construct, printed plus 0.5 percent month-over-month and plus 6.4 percent year-over-year, the sixth straight monthly gain. Ex-auto and gas printed plus 0.4 percent. Gasoline station receipts fell 5.3 percent on the lower pump-price pass-through, the primary drag on the headline. Sporting goods printed plus 1.3 percent and electronics and appliances printed plus 0.8 percent. May was revised to plus 1.0 percent from plus 0.9 percent.

Weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11 printed 226 thousand, two thousand below the prior four-week average of 228 thousand and inside the 223 to 231 thousand consensus band. Continuing claims for the reference week ending July 4 printed 1.86 million, inside the 1.82 to 1.90 million three-month band.

The Friday Michigan preliminary

Friday July 17 ran the 10:00 ET University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary July print. Headline sentiment printed 62.4, one point above the final June print of 61.4. The current conditions subcomponent printed 68.2 and the expectations subcomponent printed 58.5. The one-year median inflation expectation printed 3.2 percent, one tick below the June final of 3.3 percent. The five-to-ten-year median printed 3.0 percent, unchanged from the June final. The print rounded the week without moving the strip off the Thursday close.

Fed speak was dark from Waller’s Wednesday July 8 Peterson remarks into the July 30 FOMC statement, per the pre-blackout calendar. The Monday July 13 John Williams remarks at the New York Fed at 12:15 ET carried the last live speaker window before blackout.

The July 30 FOMC setup

The FOMC blackout window opens midnight tonight and holds through the Powell press conference at 2:30 ET Wednesday July 30. The July 30 decision carries no cut in the curve at the Friday close. What remains open on the July statement:

  • The risk paragraph language on labor market conditions, currently reading “labor market conditions have eased somewhat” in the June statement.
  • The SEP dot plot update, first refreshed since the June meeting when the median moved to two cuts in 2026.
  • The Powell press conference framing on the September 17 cut, which the strip prices at 99 percent.

The advance Q2 GDP release prints at 8:30 ET Wednesday July 30 on the same wire as the FOMC statement. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker closed Friday at plus 2.3 percent, up two ticks on the retail sales control group print. The PCE price index for June prints at 8:30 ET Thursday July 31, one day after the FOMC statement, with the core PCE consensus band mapped off Tuesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI at plus 0.15 to 0.20 percent month-over-month.

What the week closed at

  • September 17 cut probability: 99 percent (up two points on the week).
  • December 10 second cut probability: 65 percent (up ten points on the week).
  • Terminal rate read off December 2027 contract: 3.21 percent (down eight basis points on the week).
  • Two-year Treasury yield: 3.44 percent (down eight basis points on the week).
  • Ten-year Treasury yield: 4.06 percent (down ten basis points on the week).
  • Thirty-year Treasury yield: 4.63 percent (down nine basis points on the week).
  • 2s10s slope: 62 basis points (two basis points flatter on the week).
  • 5s30s slope: 31 basis points (three basis points steeper on the week).

The strip carries a two-session position into the FOMC blackout window and the July 30 statement. The two variables that shift the configuration between now and the decision: the flash S and P Manufacturing PMI July print at 9:45 ET Thursday July 23 and the advance Q2 GDP print at 8:30 ET Wednesday July 30, the same wire as the statement. The core PCE June print at 8:30 ET Thursday July 31 lands the day after the decision. Everything on the calendar prices through the September cut sealed at 99 percent and the December second cut at 65 percent.