The week of July 20 to 24 opens the first full FOMC blackout week ahead of the Wednesday July 30 decision, with no live Fed speakers on the tape. Monday runs the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for June at 10:00 ET. Tuesday runs the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey for July at 8:30 ET and a two-year Treasury auction at 1:00 ET. Wednesday runs June existing home sales at 10:00 ET and a five-year Treasury auction at 1:00 ET. Thursday pairs weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 ET with the S&P Global Flash US PMI for July at 9:45 ET and June new home sales at 10:00 ET, adds the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey at 11:00 ET, and closes on the seven-year Treasury auction at 1:00 ET. Friday runs the June advance durable goods orders print at 8:30 ET. Fed-funds futures closed Friday July 17 with the September 17 cut probability at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut probability at 65 percent. The strip is priced. The variable that shifts it: the July composite flash PMI landing outside the 51.5 to 53.0 band, or the June core capital goods orders line printing outside the plus 0.1 to plus 0.4 percent band.
Where the curve sits going in
Friday closed with the two-year Treasury at 3.43 percent, down nine basis points on the week and inside the June CPI print repricing window. The five-year closed at 3.68 percent, seven basis points tighter. The ten-year closed at 4.06 percent, ten basis points tighter. The thirty-year closed at 4.62 percent, ten basis points tighter. 2s10s closed at 63 basis points, one basis point flatter on the week. 5s30s closed at 94 basis points, three basis points flatter. The December 2027 SR3 contract implies a terminal rate of 3.16 percent, thirteen basis points lower on the week. The DXY closed at 100.9, down 0.7 on the week.
The September cut is priced at 99 percent. The December second cut is 65 percent, up ten points on the week and past the 50 percent threshold the desk reads as the market having crossed the line from single cut into a two-cut year. Whether the strip carries the second cut through the July 30 FOMC statement is the trade the auctions Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday will price into supply.
Monday July 20: Conference Board Leading Economic Index
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for June lands at 10:00 ET. The May print at minus 0.1 percent month-over-month held the twelve-month diffusion index at 48, one point above the 47 recession-signal threshold the Conference Board publishes as its coincident-recession band. The May six-month annualized rate at minus 2.8 percent compressed from the minus 3.1 percent April read.
The lines the strip reads on the LEI are average weekly manufacturing hours (held at 40.2 hours through May) and the ISM new orders diffusion contribution. A June print at zero or better, with the six-month annualized rate compressing above minus 2.5 percent, would fold cleanly into the soft-landing framing the market carried through the June SEP. A print at minus 0.3 percent or worse, with the six-month rate widening to minus 3.0 percent, would add a data point for the strip to carry the 65 percent December second cut through the July FOMC statement.
The LEI does not move futures in isolation. It reads as confirmation or contradiction against the other Monday releases: the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June at 8:30 ET and the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook for July at 10:30 ET.
Tuesday July 21: Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing, two-year auction
The Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing regional survey for July lands at 8:30 ET. The June general activity index printed plus 3.9, third consecutive positive read after the February through April run below zero. The new orders line at plus 1.4 turned positive for the first time in five months. The prices paid line at plus 39.7 held elevated, roughly ten points above the twelve-month median, marker for the services inflation stickiness the Fed reads into the OER-weighted core.
The two-year Treasury auction lands at 1:00 ET, sizing 69 billion. The June auction stopped through the when-issued yield by 0.3 basis points with a bid-to-cover at 2.75 and indirect bidders at 78.1 percent, both inside the twelve-auction average. A July stop-through inside 0.5 basis points, with indirect bidders at or above 78 percent, would confirm the front-end demand tone the strip carried through the June CPI print. A tail of 0.5 basis points or wider would signal fade at the priced-in front end.
Wednesday July 22: June existing home sales, five-year auction
June existing home sales land at 10:00 ET from the National Association of Realtors. The May print at a 4.03 million seasonally adjusted annual rate held the six-month range between 4.00 million and 4.11 million. Median sale price at 419,300 dollars printed plus 1.3 percent year-over-year, holding the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year gains under 2 percent after the 2024 pause. Months of supply at 4.6 held one tick above the 4.5 months the NAR reads as the balanced-market threshold.
The line the strip reads on existing home sales is months of supply and the year-over-year price line. A June print at 4.0 million or lower, with months of supply widening past 4.8 months, would confirm the housing-side inventory glide the September cut is priced to catalyze. A print above 4.15 million, with the year-over-year price line accelerating above plus 2 percent, would complicate the housing-inflation read the FOMC statement will describe on July 30.
The five-year Treasury auction lands at 1:00 ET, sizing 72 billion. The June five-year stopped through the WI yield by 0.2 basis points with bid-to-cover at 2.42 and indirect bidders at 69.4 percent. The July print reads through the same lens as the two-year Tuesday.
Thursday July 23: initial claims, flash PMI, new home sales, Kansas City Fed, seven-year auction
Thursday is the wire-stack day of the blackout week. Four government releases plus one regional Fed plus one auction.
Weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18 land at 8:30 ET. The four-week moving average through the week ending July 11 held at 235,000, inside the 230,000 to 240,000 band the labor desk reads as the low-firing, low-hiring steady state. Continuing claims through the week ending July 4 held at 1.87 million, sixteen consecutive weeks between 1.82 million and 1.90 million. A print above 250,000 initial or a continuing claims line above 1.95 million would break the sixteen-week range.
The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI for July lands at 9:45 ET. The June final composite at 52.9 held above the 50 breakeven for the seventeenth consecutive month. The services line at 53.1 carried the composite; the manufacturing line at 51.3 held above breakeven but softened from the May print of 52.0. The input prices sub-index on the composite ran at 59.4, the six-month low but still nine points above the pre-2022 twelve-month average. The lines the strip reads: the composite headline (the 51.5 to 53.0 band frames the priced-in soft-landing trade), the input prices sub-index (a July print below 58 would confirm the June PPI signal), and the new orders line on the manufacturing side (a print above 53 would push back on the goods-recession framing that carried through Q2).
June new home sales from the Census Bureau land at 10:00 ET. The May print at 623,000 annualized held the four-month range between 610,000 and 640,000. Median sale price at 413,000 dollars printed plus 0.8 percent year-over-year, first positive year-over-year print in seven months. Months of supply at 9.4 held wide of the 8.5 threshold the desk reads as the builder-inventory ceiling.
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for July lands at 11:00 ET. The June composite index at plus 2 printed positive for the first time in four months. The new orders line at plus 4 and the prices paid line at plus 28 frame the July read.
The seven-year Treasury auction lands at 1:00 ET, sizing 44 billion. The June seven-year stopped through the WI yield by 0.4 basis points with bid-to-cover at 2.63 and indirect bidders at 72.8 percent. The auction sits closest to the belly repricing the strip carried on the June CPI print, and the tail reads as the cleanest supply signal of the three.
Friday July 24: June advance durable goods orders
June advance durable goods orders land at 8:30 ET. The May print at plus 3.4 percent month-over-month carried the aircraft-order swing the desk pulls out of the headline. Ex-transportation at plus 0.5 percent held the range. The line the strip reads: core capital goods orders (nondefense capital goods orders ex aircraft), which at plus 0.3 percent month-over-month in May sat inside the twelve-month median band of plus 0.1 to plus 0.4 percent. A June print above plus 0.5 percent would confirm the capex-side pull the ISM new orders line signaled in June. A print at zero or worse would confirm the capex-side stall the manufacturing PMI has flagged since February.
The core capital goods shipments line, the direct GDP tracker input for the July 30 advance Q2 GDP print (which lands the day after the FOMC decision), reads through the same lens. A June shipments print at plus 0.2 percent or better would hold the Q2 GDP tracker in the plus 1.6 to plus 2.0 percent band the Atlanta Fed GDPNow closed on July 17.
What the strip needs to see
The September 17 cut is priced at 99 percent. The strip does not carry a live path to move that line inside blackout. The trade is on the December 10 second cut probability at 65 percent. Three lines can move that number:
One. The July composite flash PMI landing outside the 51.5 to 53.0 band. A print at 51 or lower, with the services line under 52, pushes the December second cut through 70 percent. A print at 53.5 or higher, with the manufacturing new orders line above 54, walks the December second cut back under 60 percent.
Two. The June core capital goods orders line printing outside the plus 0.1 to plus 0.4 percent band. A weak print confirms the capex-side stall and reinforces the two-cut path. A strong print contradicts the June PPI signal and lifts the terminal rate implied by the December 2027 SR3.
Three. The June existing home sales months-of-supply line moving outside the 4.4 to 4.8 months band. A wider read confirms the housing-side inventory glide. A tighter read raises the OER-lag read the FOMC statement will describe on July 30.
The three Treasury auctions size the desk’s read on supply demand at priced-in yields. A clean run (two-year, five-year, and seven-year all stopping inside 0.5 basis points, with indirect bidders above the twelve-auction average) confirms the front-end demand tone. A tail on the seven-year above 1.5 basis points would signal fade at the belly repricing the June CPI print carried.
Reads to hold through the week
The FOMC statement lands Wednesday July 30 at 2:00 ET, and the Powell press conference at 2:30 ET. The advance Q2 GDP print lands the following morning at 8:30 ET Thursday July 31. The blackout week reads as the last data window before the desk carries the July FOMC statement into the September SEP construction window (August through early September Fed-speaker circuit). The market is priced for a hold in July and a cut in September. Nothing on the July 20 to 24 calendar is sized to move that. The December 10 second cut probability is the trade.
The strip goes in with the two-year at 3.43 percent, the ten-year at 4.06 percent, and the DXY at 100.9. The desk reads the composite flash PMI Thursday morning as the cleanest single-print signal on the week for the December 2027 SR3 contract.