The US cash Treasury tape opens Tuesday July 21 at 8:00 ET into FOMC blackout day two ahead of the Wednesday July 30 decision, with the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey for July at 8:30 ET and the 69 billion two-year Treasury auction at 1:00 ET, first coupon supply print of the blackout week. Sunday Globex ran the two-year futures inside an implied cash-equivalent yield band of 3.42 to 3.45 percent. Fed-funds futures priced the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 65 percent at Friday’s close. The 8:30 non-manufacturing print and the 1:00 auction stop set the position the strip carries into Wednesday’s June existing home sales at 10:00 ET.

The overnight band the two-year has to hold

Sunday Globex ran the two-year futures in an implied cash-equivalent range of 3.42 to 3.45 percent, tighter than the 3.43 percent Friday close. The band compression is the blackout-week signature: no scheduled Fed voices on the tape, no supply until the 1:00 ET stop. A break of the 3.46 percent ceiling on the pre-print tape walks the December second cut back toward the 60 percent line and reads as fade at the priced soft-landing trade. A break of the 3.41 percent floor pushes the December second cut through the 68 percent line and reads as continuation of the June CPI repricing.

The ten-year closed Friday at 4.06 percent with the 2s10s at 63 basis points. The DXY closed at 100.9. The December 2027 SR3 contract implied a terminal rate of 3.16 percent, thirteen basis points lower on the week.

Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey at 8:30 ET

The Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey for July lands at 8:30 ET. The June general activity index at the firm level printed plus 3.5, first positive read in four months. The new orders index at plus 6.2 turned positive off the minus 1.8 May read. The prices paid line at plus 34.9 stayed elevated, three points above the twelve-month median.

The line the strip reads on the Philly non-manufacturing print is the new orders index against the prices paid line. A July new orders print above plus 8 with a prices paid line falling under 32 confirms the services-side moderation that the June ISM services print signaled. A new orders line back to zero or worse with prices paid holding above 35 points at services-side sticky-inflation compression and complicates the July 30 statement language on the services core inflation channel.

The future activity index at plus 26.4 in June held near the twelve-month high. A July future activity print above plus 25 with future new orders holding above plus 30 reads as services-side confidence intact through blackout. A future activity print collapsing to plus 15 or lower reads as post-tariff hedge-off in services capex.

69 billion two-year Treasury auction at 1:00 ET

The two-year Treasury auction at 1:00 ET sizes 69 billion, first coupon supply of the blackout week and matched to the June auction size. The June auction stopped through the when-issued yield by 0.3 basis points with a bid-to-cover at 2.75 and indirect bidders at 78.1 percent, both inside the twelve-auction average. The direct bidders took 21.4 percent and the primary dealers were left with 0.5 percent, lowest dealer take in nine auctions.

The lines the strip reads on Tuesday’s stop are the tail against the when-issued yield and the indirect bidder share. A stop-through inside 0.3 basis points with indirect bidders at or above 78 percent confirms the front-end demand tone the strip carried through the June CPI and June PPI prints and reads as continuation of the priced two-cut year. A tail of 0.5 basis points or wider with indirects falling to 74 percent or lower signals fade at the priced front end and complicates the September-cut size question inside the residual 10 basis point overweight the September SR3 contract carries.

The when-issued yield ran Sunday Globex at 3.43 percent, on top of the Friday cash close. A when-issued yield walking up to 3.46 percent into the 1:00 stop reads as fade being priced ahead of the auction rather than at it, and shrinks the tail-risk range around the stop.

The Wednesday setup

The June existing home sales land Wednesday July 22 at 10:00 ET. The May print at 4.03 million SAAR held the twelve-month range floor. The months of supply at 4.6 held the highest print since 2019. The median existing-home sale price at 419 thousand dollars held one percent above the year-ago read.

The Tuesday close positions the strip on two lines going into Wednesday: whether the front-end auction demand tone holds through the second-cut probability trade, and whether services-side prints (Philly non-manufacturing Tuesday, existing home sales Wednesday) build the case for the July 30 statement to lean on the services-inflation moderation the desk read into the June CPI.

Where the priced curve sits going in

The September 17 cut is priced at 99 percent. The strip does not carry a live path to move that inside blackout. The active trade is the December 10 second cut probability at 65 percent, up ten points on the week and past the 50 percent threshold that reads as the market having crossed from a single-cut into a two-cut year.

The December 2026 SR3 contract implied a year-end fed-funds rate of 3.79 percent, six basis points lower on the week. The March 2027 SR3 contract implied a first-quarter 2027 rate of 3.51 percent, ten basis points lower on the week and consistent with a third cut priced at 41 percent by March.

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