The US cash Treasury tape opens Friday July 24 at 8:00 ET into FOMC blackout day five ahead of the Wednesday July 30 decision, with June advance durable goods orders at 8:30 ET and the S&P Global Flash US PMI for July at 9:45 ET, last pre-decision data print of the blackout week. Thursday’s close carried the ten-year at 4.04 percent implied cash-equivalent yield after weekly initial jobless claims printed at 219 thousand and June new home sales printed at 631 thousand SAAR with 9.6 months of supply. Fed-funds futures priced the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 67 percent at Thursday’s close, up one point on the day and twelve points on the week. The 8:30 capital goods line and the 9:45 services PMI set the position the strip carries into Monday July 27 and Tuesday July 28 blackout tape, then into the 2:00 ET statement release and 2:30 ET Powell press conference on Wednesday July 30.

The overnight band the ten-year has to hold

The ten-year printed 4.04 percent implied cash-equivalent yield at Thursday’s close, one basis point tighter on the day and inside the 4.03 to 4.08 percent band the tape has carried since Sunday Globex. A break of the 4.09 percent ceiling through the 8:30 orders print walks the December second cut back inside the 60 percent line and reads as fade at the priced two-cut path. A break of the 4.02 percent floor through the 9:45 flash PMI reads as continuation of the June CPI at minus 0.4 percent headline, the June PPI at plus 0.1 percent headline, and the four-week claims average at 222 thousand the desk carried into blackout, and pushes the December second cut past the 70 percent line into the weekend.

The 2s10s sat at 65 basis points at Thursday’s close, one basis point steeper on the day and two basis points steeper on the week. The DXY ran 100.4 to 100.9 on Thursday’s tape, down 0.2 on the day. The December 2027 SR3 contract held an implied terminal of 3.14 percent, one basis point lower on the day and three basis points lower on the week.

June advance durable goods orders at 8:30 ET

The US Census Bureau publishes the advance report on durable goods manufacturers shipments, inventories, and orders for June at 8:30 ET. The May headline landed at plus 8.9 percent month over month, the strongest monthly print in eleven months and carried almost entirely by nondefense aircraft and parts orders at plus 218 percent on the month, a Boeing-order seasonality effect the strip fades on release. The May ex-transportation line printed plus 0.2 percent, holding the twelve-month range midpoint. The nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft line, the core capex read the desk carries into the statement, printed plus 0.3 percent in May.

The line the strip reads on the June print is the nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft number against the plus 0.1 to plus 0.4 percent band flagged in the week-ahead. A June core capex orders print inside that band confirms the business-investment stability the Q2 GDP first estimate on July 30 at 8:30 ET will absorb and reads as consistent with the two-cut year priced into the strip. A June core capex orders print above plus 0.5 percent flags investment-side pricing pressure that pulls the December second cut back inside 60 percent and reads as fade at the strip’s terminal-rate arithmetic. A June core capex orders print below zero confirms the pass-through the June ISM manufacturing new-orders sub-index at 48.5 and the June NFB small business capex-plans reading at 21 already flagged and pushes the December second cut past 70 percent into Monday’s tape.

The headline durable goods number reverses the May Boeing lift and lands inside a minus 6.0 to minus 4.0 percent month-over-month band on the fade. The shipments line and the unfilled orders line publish alongside and feed the Q2 GDP first estimate the following Wednesday. Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft at plus 0.4 percent in May sets the base for the equipment-investment contribution the first-estimate print carries.

S&P Global Flash US PMI for July at 9:45 ET

S&P Global publishes the Flash US Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI for July at 9:45 ET, last pre-blackout tape read on July private-sector activity before the July 30 statement. The June manufacturing final at 51.4 held the third print above the 50 line and the twelve-month high. The June services final at 53.2 held the twelve-month high. The June composite output at 52.9 printed inside the 51.5 to 53.0 band flagged in the week-ahead.

The line the strip reads on the flash is the services output index against the 52.0 to 54.0 band and the services input prices sub-index against the 55.0 to 57.0 band. A flash services PMI at or above 53.5 with input prices holding above 56 flags services-side pricing pressure the September cut has to absorb without repricing the two-cut year, and reads as fade at the December second cut. A flash services PMI falling under 52.0 with input prices under 54 confirms the services-side moderation the June CPI supercore print at plus 0.05 percent and the June services PCE-relevant lines leaned on, and pushes the December second cut past 70 percent into Monday’s tape.

The manufacturing new orders sub-index at 50.1 in June printed the first read above 50 since March. A July flash manufacturing new orders print above 51 confirms the goods-side stabilization the June ISM manufacturing headline at 49.8 flagged and reinforces the durable goods core capex reading. The manufacturing input prices sub-index at 58.3 in June flagged the tariff pass-through the desk has been watching in the goods CPI print. A July flash manufacturing input prices reading above 60 reprices the goods-inflation channel the September cut assumes and flags an upside risk to the July and August CPI prints.

The Monday and Tuesday setup

The Q2 GDP advance estimate lands Wednesday July 30 at 8:30 ET, ninety minutes before the 2:00 ET FOMC statement. Monday July 27 and Tuesday July 28 run the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey at 10:30 ET Monday, the Conference Board consumer confidence for July at 10:00 ET Tuesday, the JOLTS report for June at 10:00 ET Tuesday, and the Case-Shiller and FHFA home price indices for May at 9:00 ET Tuesday. Any Case-Shiller print holding at plus 3.5 percent year over year or lower confirms the housing-side price moderation the Wednesday existing-home-sales print at 4.02 million SAAR and Thursday’s 9.6 months of supply new-home read already flagged.

The June JOLTS print carries the last labor-market read the statement will incorporate. A June JOLTS quit rate holding at 2.0 percent confirms the labor-side softening the June NFP print at 139 thousand payrolls and 4.1 percent unemployment rate flagged. A quit rate falling under 2.0 percent with a job openings print under 7.2 million pulls the third-cut probability by March 2027 above 50 percent and complicates the terminal-rate arithmetic the SR3 strip carries.

Where the priced curve sits going in

The September 17 cut is priced at 99 percent. The strip does not carry a live path to move that inside blackout. The active trade remains the December 10 second cut probability at 67 percent, up one point on Thursday and twelve points on the week.

The December 2026 SR3 contract implied a year-end fed-funds rate of 3.77 percent, one basis point lower on the day and eight basis points lower on the week. The March 2027 SR3 contract implied a first-quarter 2027 rate of 3.49 percent, one basis point lower on the day and consistent with a third cut priced at 44 percent by March. The December 2027 SR3 contract at an implied 3.14 percent terminal printed the twelve-month low.

The weekly close carries the strip into the July 27 to July 30 pre-statement window with the September cut sealed, the December second cut inside the mid-60s to high-60s range the priced two-cut year requires, and the March 2027 third-cut probability holding under 50 percent. The July 30 statement resolves the two-cut year priced into the strip. The Powell press conference at 2:30 ET resolves the December cadence.

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