The US macro tape ran the first full FOMC blackout week from Monday July 20 through Friday July 24 ahead of the Wednesday July 30 decision, with no live Fed speakers on the calendar through the 2:30 ET Powell press conference. June existing home sales printed at 4.02 million SAAR with 4.7 months of supply, June new home sales printed at 631 thousand SAAR with 9.6 months of supply, weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18 printed at 219 thousand, June advance durable goods orders printed at minus 5.2 percent headline with core capex ex aircraft at plus 0.3 percent, and the S&P Global Flash July composite output printed at 52.4. Fed-funds futures closed the week with the September 17 cut probability at 99 percent, unchanged on the week, and the December 10 second cut probability at 70 percent, up five points on the week. The July 30 FOMC statement lands at 2:00 ET Wednesday, ninety minutes after the advance Q2 GDP release at 8:30 ET on the same wire.

The Monday to Tuesday position-setters

Monday July 20 ran a three-print regional window with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June at 8:30 ET, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for June at 10:00 ET, and the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook for July at 10:30 ET. The CFNAI printed minus 0.02 with the three-month moving average at minus 0.06, one tick softer than the minus 0.05 May read and holding the below-trend but non-recessionary corridor. The LEI printed minus 0.2 percent month over month with the twelve-month diffusion at 47, on the recession-signal threshold the Conference Board publishes. The six-month annualized rate compressed one tick to minus 2.7 percent. The Dallas Fed general business activity index printed minus 9.4 for July, narrower than the minus 12.7 June read, with the new orders line at minus 4.8 and the prices paid line at plus 26.1, three points off the June elevated print.

Tuesday July 21 ran the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey for July at 8:30 ET and the 69 billion two-year Treasury auction at 1:00 ET. The Philly non-manufacturing general activity index printed plus 5.8 at the firm level, second consecutive positive read, with the new orders index at plus 7.4 and the prices paid line at plus 33.1, one point below the twelve-month median. The two-year auction stopped through the when-issued yield by 0.4 basis points with a bid-to-cover at 2.79 and indirect bidders at 79.2 percent, both inside the twelve-auction range. Primary dealer take at 0.4 percent printed the lowest dealer take in ten auctions. The stop confirmed the front-end demand tone the June CPI at minus 0.4 percent headline and June PPI at plus 0.1 percent headline had already flagged.

The Wednesday housing print and 20-year reopening

Wednesday July 22 ran June existing home sales at 10:00 ET and the 16 billion 20-year Treasury reopening at 1:00 ET. Existing home sales landed at a 4.02 million SAAR, the third consecutive month inside the 4.00 to 4.10 million channel and a hair off the twelve-month low. Months of supply printed 4.7, one tick above the May reading and the highest print since 2019. The median existing-home sale price at 418 thousand dollars ran 0.7 percent above the year-ago read, the flattest year-over-year print in ten months. The first-time buyer share at 32 percent held the twelve-month high, a one-point gain off May.

The 20-year reopening stopped through the when-issued yield by 0.2 basis points with a bid-to-cover at 2.66 and indirect bidders at 75.4 percent, both inside the twelve-reopening range. Direct bidders took 20.7 percent and primary dealers were left with 3.9 percent, tighter than the June reopening dealer take. The December 10 second cut probability printed 66 percent at Wednesday’s close, up one point on the day.

The Thursday labor and new-home-sales print

Thursday July 23 ran weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 ET and June new home sales at 10:00 ET. Initial claims for the week ending July 18 printed at 219 thousand, two thousand below the prior week print of 221 thousand and inside the 215 to 235 thousand channel that has held since May. The four-week moving average at 222 thousand printed one thousand lower on the week and inside the twelve-month range midpoint. Continuing claims for the week ending July 11 printed at 1.94 million, at the floor of the 1.94 to 1.97 million band the release has held for eight weeks.

June new home sales landed at a 631 thousand SAAR, three percent above the May print of 613 thousand SAAR and above the 610 to 640 thousand channel top. Months of supply printed 9.6, one tick below the 9.8 May reading but the second-highest print since October 2022. The median new-home sale price at 415 thousand dollars printed the second year-over-year decline in fifteen months, running 0.8 percent below the year-ago read. The inventory of new homes for sale at 511 thousand held the twelve-month high. Fed-funds futures priced the December 10 second cut probability at 67 percent at Thursday’s close, up one point on the day.

The Friday durable goods and flash PMI dual window

Friday July 24 ran June advance durable goods orders at 8:30 ET and the S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI for July at 9:45 ET, last pre-decision data prints of the blackout week. Headline durable goods orders landed minus 5.2 percent month over month, fading the May headline of plus 8.9 percent as the nondefense aircraft and parts base collapsed on the reverse-seasonal fade. Ex-transportation printed plus 0.3 percent, one tick above the May reading and inside the twelve-month range. Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, the core capex read, printed plus 0.3 percent month over month, holding the May pace and inside the plus 0.1 to plus 0.4 percent consensus band the week-ahead flagged. Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft printed plus 0.4 percent, holding the May base for the equipment-investment contribution the Q2 GDP first estimate will absorb Wednesday.

The S&P Global Flash US PMI for July printed the manufacturing headline at 51.1, three ticks softer than the June final at 51.4 and holding the third print above the 50 line. The services headline at 52.6 softened from the June final at 53.2 but held the twelve-month high band. The composite output index at 52.4 landed inside the 51.5 to 53.0 consensus band flagged in the week-ahead. The services input prices sub-index at 55.4 printed one point below the June final of 56.4 and inside the moderation band the June CPI supercore print at plus 0.05 percent already flagged. The manufacturing input prices sub-index at 58.8 printed elevated but not through the 60 tariff pass-through threshold the goods CPI channel has been watching. The manufacturing new orders sub-index at 50.4 held the second consecutive print above 50.

The strip took the composite output softening and the services input prices moderation as a two-step confirmation of the priced-in cut path. Fed-funds futures repriced the December 10 second cut probability to 70 percent by Friday’s cash close, up three points on the day and up five points on the week.

What the week closed at

  • September 17 cut probability: 99 percent (unchanged on the week).
  • December 10 second cut probability: 70 percent (up five points on the week).
  • March 2027 third cut probability: 48 percent (up four points on the week).
  • Terminal rate read off December 2027 SR3 contract: 3.12 percent (down four basis points on the week).
  • Two-year Treasury yield: 3.40 percent (down three basis points on the week).
  • Ten-year Treasury yield: 4.03 percent (down three basis points on the week).
  • Thirty-year Treasury yield: 4.61 percent (down two basis points on the week).
  • 2s10s slope: 63 basis points (one basis point flatter on the week).
  • 5s30s slope: 32 basis points (one basis point steeper on the week).
  • DXY: 100.5 (down 0.4 on the week).

The July 27 to July 30 setup

The Monday July 27 tape opens with the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey for July at 10:30 ET and no live Fed speakers through the Wednesday July 30 press conference. Tuesday July 28 runs the Case-Shiller and FHFA home price indices for May at 9:00 ET, the Conference Board consumer confidence for July at 10:00 ET, and the JOLTS report for June at 10:00 ET. Any Case-Shiller print holding at or below plus 3.3 percent year over year confirms the housing-side price moderation the Wednesday existing-home-sales and Thursday new-home-sales inventory reads already flagged. A June JOLTS quit rate holding at 2.0 percent confirms the labor-side softening the June NFP print at 139 thousand payrolls carried into the statement.

Wednesday July 30 carries the advance Q2 GDP release at 8:30 ET and the FOMC statement at 2:00 ET with the Powell press conference at 2:30 ET. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker closed Friday at plus 2.4 percent, one tick above the prior Friday read on the durable goods core capex and the flash PMI composite output prints. What remains open on the July statement:

  • The risk paragraph language on labor market conditions, currently reading “labor market conditions have eased somewhat” in the June statement.
  • The SEP dot plot update, first refreshed since the June meeting when the median moved to two cuts in 2026. The dot plot prints inside the statement.
  • The Powell press conference framing on the September 17 cut priced at 99 percent, and the December cadence question priced at 70 percent inside the second-cut probability.

The core PCE price index for June prints Thursday July 31 at 8:30 ET, one day after the FOMC statement, with the consensus band mapped off the June CPI at minus 0.4 percent headline (flat core), the June PPI at plus 0.1 percent headline (plus 0.2 percent core), and the Friday flash services PMI input prices at 55.4. The core PCE band the desk carries into Thursday’s print sits at plus 0.13 to plus 0.18 percent month over month.

The strip carries a five-session position into the FOMC blackout tape and the July 30 statement, priced for a September cut that is sealed and a December second cut that closed the week at 70 percent. The two variables that can shift the configuration between now and Wednesday: the June JOLTS quit rate at 10:00 ET Tuesday and the advance Q2 GDP print at 8:30 ET Wednesday on the same wire as the statement. Everything on the calendar prices through the July 30 statement and the Powell press conference resolving the December cadence.