The US cash Treasury tape opens Monday August 3 at 8:00 ET into the first data week after the July 30 FOMC hold, with the July ISM manufacturing PMI at 10:00 ET and June construction spending at 10:00 ET, running through July JOLTS Tuesday, July ISM services and July ADP employment Wednesday, weekly jobless claims and Q2 preliminary productivity Thursday, and July nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 ET Friday. Friday August 1’s close carried the ten-year at 3.97 percent implied cash-equivalent yield, seven basis points tighter on the week and the lowest close since April 21, on continuation of the post-statement rally. Fed-funds futures priced the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 72 percent at Friday’s close, up five points on the week and the first close above 70 for the December contract since June 12. The Friday NFP print sets whether the December contract holds above 70 into the August tape or fades back inside the 60s.

The July 30 statement and what carried into Friday’s close

The FOMC statement Wednesday July 30 at 2:00 ET held the target range at 4.25 to 4.50 percent on a 12 to 0 vote. The statement language added the phrase “the Committee judges that the balance of risks has shifted toward the maximum employment side of the mandate,” the first explicit dual-mandate rebalancing since the September 2024 pivot. The updated Summary of Economic Projections was not released at this meeting, next SEP prints with the September 17 decision. Powell in the 2:30 ET press conference confirmed a September cut is on the table, tied the September decision to “further evidence of labor-market softening consistent with the June JOLTS quit rate at 2.0 percent and the June payrolls print at 139 thousand,” and declined to commit to the December cadence.

The 10-year closed the Wednesday statement session at 4.02 percent implied cash, three basis points tighter on the day. Thursday’s session held 4.00 percent flat on a weekly initial jobless claims print of 223 thousand. Friday’s session extended the rally to 3.97 percent on the Q2 GDP advance estimate at plus 2.1 percent annualized (release Wednesday morning at 8:30 ET, which printed inside the plus 1.8 to plus 2.3 percent band the strip carried in) and the June PCE headline at plus 0.1 percent month over month, plus 2.4 percent year over year, and June core PCE at plus 0.1 percent month over month, plus 2.6 percent year over year (release Friday morning at 8:30 ET, inside the low end of the pre-print band and the first sub-2.7 year-over-year core PCE print since March 2024).

The 2s10s finished Friday at 72 basis points, seven basis points steeper on the week and the steepest close since June 3. The DXY ran 99.6 to 100.2 on Friday’s tape and closed 99.8, down 0.6 on the week. The December 2027 SR3 contract held an implied terminal of 3.11 percent, three basis points lower on the week and the twelve-month low.

The overnight band the ten-year has to hold

The 10-year printed 3.97 percent implied cash-equivalent yield at Friday’s close and Sunday Globex has traded a 3.95 to 4.00 percent band into Monday’s 8:00 open. A break of the 3.94 percent floor through the 10:00 ISM manufacturing print reads as continuation of the post-statement rally and pulls the December second cut past 75 percent into Tuesday’s JOLTS. A break of the 4.02 percent ceiling through the 10:00 print walks the December second cut back inside 65 percent and reads as fade at the priced two-cut year, which the strip’s terminal-rate arithmetic requires to justify a Dec 2027 SR3 implied at 3.11 percent.

July ISM manufacturing PMI at 10 ET

The Institute for Supply Management publishes the July manufacturing PMI at 10:00 ET. The June headline landed at 49.8, the eleventh consecutive month in contraction and one tick off the June flash S&P Global manufacturing PMI at 51.4. The June new orders sub-index at 50.1 printed the first read above 50 since March. The June prices paid sub-index at 58.3 held the tariff pass-through the desk has been watching in the goods CPI print.

The line the strip reads on the July print is the new orders sub-index against the 48.0 to 51.5 band and the prices paid sub-index against the 55.0 to 60.0 band. A July new orders print holding at or above 50 with prices paid moderating under 56 confirms the goods-side stabilization the June durable goods core capex reading at plus 0.3 percent flagged and reads as consistent with the two-cut year priced in the strip. A July new orders print falling under 48 with prices paid holding above 58 flags a renewed goods-side softening the strip has to absorb, pulls the December second cut probability past 75 percent, and puts a third cut priced by March 2027 back on the table.

The headline PMI at 49.8 in June and the June flash reading at 51.4 carry the widest ISM-versus-S&P gap since April 2025. A July ISM print inside the 49.0 to 51.0 band narrows the gap and confirms the manufacturing-sector reads are running consistent, quiet news for the strip. A July ISM print above 51.5 flags a rebound the September cut has to absorb without repricing the terminal-rate path and reads as fade at the December second cut. The employment sub-index at 44.2 in June printed the fourteenth consecutive contraction reading and the softest since May 2020, a labor-side read the desk carries directly into Friday’s NFP.

June construction spending at 10 ET

The US Census Bureau publishes the June construction spending report at 10:00 ET. The May headline landed at minus 0.3 percent month over month, the fourth consecutive monthly contraction. The May private residential line at minus 0.5 percent carried the drag. May private nonresidential at plus 0.2 percent held the range midpoint.

The line the strip reads on the June print is the private residential sub-line against the minus 0.4 to zero percent band. A June private residential print at or above minus 0.2 percent confirms the housing-side stabilization the May new home sales bounce to 631 thousand SAAR and the May existing home sales print at 4.05 million SAAR already flagged. A June private residential print under minus 0.5 percent confirms the pass-through the June housing starts at 1.28 million SAAR and June building permits at 1.31 million SAAR flagged and reinforces the housing-as-Fed-lever thesis the strip has been carrying since March.

The Tuesday through Thursday setup

Tuesday August 4 runs the June JOLTS at 10:00 ET and June factory orders at 10:00 ET. The June JOLTS carries the last labor-market read the September SEP will incorporate through the pre-decision blackout. The May JOLTS printed a 7.19 million job openings number and a quit rate of 2.0 percent. A June job openings print holding above 7.10 million with a quit rate at 2.0 percent confirms the labor-side softening the desk has been carrying but does not repossess the two-cut path. A June job openings print falling under 7.00 million with a quit rate at 1.9 percent pulls the December second cut past 75 percent and puts the March 2027 third cut back inside 50 percent probability.

Wednesday August 5 runs the July ADP employment at 8:15 ET and the July ISM services PMI at 10:00 ET. The June ADP print at 119 thousand and the June NFP print at 139 thousand kept the ADP-NFP correlation break the desk has been carrying since March intact. The June ISM services headline at 50.8 with the prices paid sub-index at 66.9 flagged the last-mile services-inflation stall the June core PCE at plus 2.6 percent year over year confirmed. A July ISM services headline holding at or above 50 with prices paid moderating under 65 confirms the services-side moderation and reads as consistent with the two-cut year. A July ISM services headline under 49 with prices paid holding above 67 flags services-side pricing pressure the September cut has to absorb without repricing the terminal and reads as fade at the December second cut.

Thursday August 6 runs weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 ET and Q2 preliminary productivity and unit labor costs at 8:30 ET. The four-week claims average at 222 thousand on Thursday July 24 (last data-week close) has moved to 225 thousand on Friday August 1 through claims data. The line the strip reads on the Q2 preliminary print is the unit labor costs number against the plus 1.5 to plus 2.5 percent annualized band. A Q2 preliminary unit labor costs print at or under plus 2.0 percent confirms the productivity-side offset the Fed has been leaning on to bring core PCE back to 2 percent and reads as consistent with the September cut.

July nonfarm payrolls Friday at 8:30 ET

The BLS publishes the July Employment Situation on Friday August 8 at 8:30 ET. The June print carried payrolls at 139 thousand, the unemployment rate at 4.1 percent, average hourly earnings at plus 0.3 percent month over month, plus 3.7 percent year over year, and average weekly hours at 34.3. Prior-month revisions to April and May took the three-month average down to 132 thousand, the softest three-month read since June 2020 outside the pandemic distortion window.

The four-line NFP framework the desk carries into a print reads: (1) headline payrolls against the plus 110 to plus 160 thousand band the July ADP and jobless claims data set; (2) prior-month revisions to April and May, which if downward again pulls the three-month average under 120 thousand and reads as validation of the September cut path; (3) unemployment rate against the 4.0 to 4.2 percent band, with a 4.2 print flagging a further Sahm-rule watch given the six-month low of 3.9 percent in January 2026; (4) average hourly earnings against the plus 0.2 to plus 0.3 percent month over month band, with the year-over-year line against the plus 3.5 to plus 3.8 percent band.

A July NFP print inside plus 110 to plus 160 thousand with unemployment holding at 4.1 percent and AHE at plus 0.3 percent reads as consistent with the two-cut year priced into the strip and holds the December second cut inside the 70 to 75 percent range. A July NFP print under plus 100 thousand with negative April and May revisions and unemployment rising to 4.2 percent pushes the December second cut past 80 percent, pulls the March 2027 third cut past 55 percent, and repositions the terminal-rate arithmetic the Dec 2027 SR3 at 3.11 percent has to hold. A July NFP print above plus 175 thousand with AHE at plus 0.4 percent walks the December second cut back inside 60 percent and pulls the March 2027 third cut off the table.

Where the priced curve sits going in

The September 17 cut is priced at 99 percent. The active trade this week is the December 10 second cut probability at 72 percent and the March 2027 third cut probability at 46 percent, both of which reprice off Friday’s NFP.

The December 2026 SR3 contract implied a year-end fed-funds rate of 3.73 percent at Friday’s close, four basis points lower on the week. The March 2027 SR3 contract implied a first-quarter 2027 rate of 3.44 percent, five basis points lower on the week and consistent with the December second cut plus a 46 percent probability of a third cut by March. The December 2027 SR3 contract at an implied 3.11 percent terminal printed the twelve-month low, three basis points lower on the week.

The week ahead carries the strip through the last labor and activity reads the September SEP will incorporate before the pre-decision blackout opens on Saturday September 6. A soft NFP Friday validates the two-cut year and pulls a third cut back onto the table. A firm NFP Friday holds the September cut but repositions the December cadence and pulls the Dec 2027 terminal implied off the twelve-month low.

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