The US cash Treasury tape opens Wednesday August 5 at 8:00 ET into the July ADP employment report at 8:15 ET and the July ISM services PMI at 10:00 ET, the two prints that carry the breadth read on Monday’s July ISM manufacturing PMI at 55.6 and the reprice that walked the December 10 second cut probability from 72 percent Friday to 58 percent Monday close. Tuesday’s June JOLTS print at 7.11 million job openings with the quit rate at 2.0 percent and the vacancy-to-unemployed ratio at 1.03 held the labor-side softening trajectory the June nonfarm payrolls at 139 thousand flagged, quiet news for the strip against Monday’s ISM reprice. Tuesday’s June factory orders print at plus 0.4 percent month over month revised the core capital goods orders to plus 0.4 percent from the advance release’s plus 0.3 percent, adding modest goods-side capex confirmation to Monday’s ISM new orders sub-index at 55.4. The 10-year closed Tuesday at 4.04 percent implied cash-equivalent yield, two basis points tighter on the session on the JOLTS softness and the ADP-preview positioning into the 8:15 ET print. The Wednesday combination sets the position the strip carries into Friday’s July nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 ET and resolves whether Monday’s ISM manufacturing surprise reads as breadth across the service side or as a one-off goods print.

July ADP employment at 8:15 ET

The ADP Research Institute publishes the July National Employment Report at 8:15 ET. The June ADP print at 119 thousand landed 12 thousand above the pre-print consensus at 107 thousand and 20 thousand below the June nonfarm payrolls at 139 thousand, holding the ADP-NFP correlation break the desk has read across into July since March. The June breakdown carried service-providing at 96 thousand and goods-producing at 23 thousand, with leisure and hospitality at 42 thousand leading the service-side print. Wages for job-stayers printed at 4.2 percent year over year and for job-changers at 6.7 percent year over year, the narrowest job-stayer to job-changer wage gap since October 2024.

The line the strip reads on the July ADP print is the headline against the plus 90 to plus 140 thousand band and the service-providing breakdown against the plus 75 to plus 110 thousand band. A July ADP headline inside 100 to 140 thousand with service-providing at 85 to 105 thousand reads as the labor-side softening trajectory holding through July and does not carry directional weight against Monday’s ISM manufacturing reprice, quiet news for the strip going into the 10:00 ISM services print. A July ADP headline above plus 175 thousand with service-providing above 130 thousand reinforces Monday’s ISM manufacturing surprise as breadth read into the labor side, walks the December second cut probability back inside the 50 percent line, and pulls December 2026 SR3 implied year-end above 3.85 percent into the ISM services print. A July ADP headline falling under plus 75 thousand with service-providing under 60 thousand flags a labor-side deterioration that offsets Monday’s ISM print, pulls the December second cut probability back through the 65 percent line, and puts the Sahm-rule watch onto Friday’s July NFP unemployment print at 4.1 percent for the first time since March 2025.

The wage line in the July ADP report carries direct read into the services-inflation debate. A July job-stayer wage print at 4.0 percent or lower with job-changer wage under 6.5 percent flags the wage-side softening the September 17 SEP will price into the September cut and does not add pressure to the last-mile services inflation stall. A July job-stayer wage holding at 4.2 percent or higher with job-changer wage at 6.7 percent or higher reads as the services-side wage rigidity the June PCE at plus 2.6 percent year over year confirmed and adds direct pressure to the terminal-rate anchor debate the September dot plot will incorporate.

July ISM services PMI at 10 ET

The Institute for Supply Management publishes the July Services PMI at 10:00 ET. The June services PMI headline at 50.8 printed the fifth consecutive expansion read but held inside the 50 to 52 range that reads as the services side softening off the twelve-month average of 52.4. The June new orders sub-index at 51.3 held expansion by 1.3 points. The June employment sub-index at 47.2 printed the sixth consecutive contraction read, extending the services-side labor softening the ISM services survey has flagged since January. The June prices paid sub-index at 66.9 printed the highest read since November 2022, confirming the services-inflation last-mile stall the June core PCE at plus 2.6 percent year over year and the June CPI supercore at plus 3.4 percent year over year both confirmed.

The line the strip reads on the July ISM services print is the headline against the 49.5 to 52.5 band, the prices paid sub-index against the 63 to 68 band, and the employment sub-index against the 46 to 49 band. A July headline print inside 50.0 to 52.0 with prices paid moderating to 63 to 65 and employment holding at 47 to 49 reads as services-side stability with a modest cooling in pricing pressure and adds weight to the September cut cadence, consistent with the two-cut year the strip carried into the July 30 statement. A July headline print above 53.0 with prices paid holding above 66 and employment lifting into expansion above 50 reinforces Monday’s ISM manufacturing surprise as breadth across the goods and services sides, walks the December second cut probability past the 45 percent line into a single-cut year, and pulls the terminal-rate anchor debate directly into the September 17 SEP dot-plot median. A July headline print falling under 49.5 with prices paid moderating under 63 and employment holding under 47 flags services-side deterioration that offsets Monday’s ISM manufacturing surprise, pulls the December second cut probability back through the 72 percent line, and puts the March 2027 third cut probability back inside the 50 percent range for the first time since June 12.

The prices paid sub-index carries the most direct read into the terminal-rate anchor. The June services prices paid at 66.9 sat 9.1 points above the 57.8 twelve-month average and 2.4 points above the 64.5 pre-print consensus the strip carried into the June release. A July services prices paid at 68 or higher would print the highest services prices-paid read since May 2022 and confirm the tariff pass-through the desk has been reading through the goods-CPI channel is now cross-reading into the services line, adding direct weight against any near-term easing of the September dot-plot terminal anchor.

The band the ten-year has to hold

Tuesday-into-Wednesday Globex carried the ten-year futures in an implied cash-equivalent yield band of 4.02 to 4.07 percent through the Tuesday post-close tape, tighter than Monday’s intraday 3.97 to 4.08 percent range and consistent with the JOLTS-print reset back inside the pre-Monday-ISM range. A break of the 4.00 percent floor through the 8:15 ADP print reads as a soft ADP surprise reinforcing Tuesday’s JOLTS softness, pulls the December second cut probability back through the 65 percent line, and validates the two-cut year the strip carried into the July 30 statement. A break of the 4.10 percent ceiling through the 10:00 ISM services print confirms Monday’s ISM manufacturing surprise as breadth across the goods and services sides, walks the December second cut past the 50 percent threshold into a single-cut year, and pulls the December 2027 SR3 implied terminal above 3.25 percent back on the table.

Where the priced curve sits going in

The September 17 cut stayed priced at 99 percent through Tuesday’s close. The active trade Wednesday is the December 10 second cut probability at 60 percent, two points above Monday’s 58 percent close and inside the 50 to 65 percent range that reads as the market carrying a live debate between a two-cut year and a single-cut year. The March 2027 third cut probability at 34 percent printed two points above Monday’s 32 percent close on the JOLTS softness read across into the March cadence.

The December 2026 SR3 contract implied a year-end fed-funds rate of 3.77 percent at Tuesday’s close, two basis points tighter on the session and consistent with the December second cut probability now sitting inside the 50 to 65 percent range. The March 2027 SR3 contract implied a first-quarter 2027 rate of 3.49 percent, two basis points tighter on the session. The December 2027 SR3 contract implied a 3.16 percent terminal, two basis points tighter and back within one basis point of the twelve-month low the Friday August 1 close held.

The Thursday and Friday setup

Thursday August 6 runs weekly jobless claims at 8:30 ET and Q2 preliminary nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs at 8:30 ET. Initial claims at 228 thousand last week held the twelve-month range midpoint. The Q1 nonfarm productivity print at plus 1.7 percent carried the productivity-side offset to unit labor cost pressure the services inflation stall has been running against. A Q2 productivity print holding at plus 1.5 percent or higher with unit labor costs moderating under plus 3.5 percent reads as consistent with the September cut path without repricing the December cadence.

Friday August 8 runs the July nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 ET. The June NFP print at 139 thousand with the unemployment rate at 4.1 percent and average hourly earnings at plus 0.2 percent month over month carried the labor-side softening trajectory the September cut is pricing. The line the strip reads on the July NFP print is the headline against the plus 100 to plus 150 thousand band, the unemployment rate against the 4.1 to 4.2 percent band, and the average hourly earnings against the plus 0.2 to plus 0.3 percent month over month band. A firm July NFP print (headline above plus 175 thousand with unemployment holding at 4.1 percent and AHE at plus 0.3 percent) walks the December second cut past the 45 percent line and prints a single-cut year. A soft July NFP print (headline under plus 90 thousand with unemployment lifting to 4.2 percent and AHE at plus 0.1 percent) walks the December second cut back through the 72 percent line and validates the two-cut year the July 30 statement priced.

The week resolves whether Monday’s ISM manufacturing surprise carried directional weight or read as a one-off goods print. Wednesday’s ADP and ISM services combination sets the position the strip carries into Friday. A confirming Wednesday (firm ADP, firm services headline, sticky prices paid) with a firm July NFP Friday walks the December second cut past 45 percent. A fading Wednesday (soft ADP, sub-50 services headline, moderating prices paid) with a soft July NFP Friday walks the December second cut back through 72 percent and puts the March 2027 third cut probability back inside 50 percent for the first time since June 12.

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