The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 0.7% year over year in March 2026, down from 0.8% in February and the slowest annual pace in the current cycle. The 10-City Composite cooled to 1.4% from 1.5%, and the 20-City Composite to 0.8% from 0.9%. On a seasonally-adjusted month-over-month basis, the national index slipped 0.2%.
With March CPI running 2.6 percentage points above the 0.7% nominal gain, real home prices declined for the 10th consecutive month. Nominal appreciation is positive on paper; in inflation-adjusted terms, the typical U.S. home has been losing purchasing power for nearly a year.
The 20-city detail shows the slowdown broadening. More than half of the major metros posted year-over-year price declines in March. Seattle (-2.5%) displaced Denver as the weakest market. Chicago (+6.1%) remained the strongest, followed by New York (+4.0%) and Cleveland (+3.0%). Nicholas Godec of S&P DJI characterized the data as “a broadening and deepening housing slowdown.”
The macro read: housing is no longer providing the wealth-effect tailwind it did in 2021 through 2023, and at current real rates the path of least resistance is more cooling, not reacceleration.