The US cash Treasury tape reopens at 8:00 ET Tuesday July 7 into a data-quiet session, with no scheduled release before Wednesday July 8 at 10:00 ET when Governor Waller delivers remarks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics on the labor-market side of the dual mandate. The Fed G.19 May consumer credit print follows at 3:00 PM ET Wednesday, giving the mid-week tape a dual-window structure absent from the Tuesday session. The two-year opens Tuesday inside a 3.51 to 3.55 percent overnight Globex band and the December 10 second cut probability sits at 54 percent on the post-ISM Services close.

What the Monday close set

The June ISM Services headline print of 51.6 landed inside the 50.9 to 52.4 consensus band and closed the two-year at 3.52 percent, one basis point inside the pre-print 3.51 to 3.57 window. The prices paid subindex at 58.9 printed a shade above the 58.5 consensus but stayed inside the 57.8 to 60.1 five-month band. The employment subindex at 49.4 confirmed the June NFP softness without extending the negative-trajectory signal. The release-day move on the two-year totaled 3 basis points, at the low end of the 14 to 18 basis point historical release-day distribution.

The September SR3 implied yield closed at 3.98 percent and the December SR3 at 3.60 percent. The September 17 cut probability sat at 97 percent unchanged from the Thursday close, and the December second cut moved from 53 to 54 percent on the release. The 9-basis-point term spread between September and December SR3 is the widest single-meeting spread in the front strip and carries the Waller-plus-G.19 mid-week reaction weight.

The Tuesday session structure

The Tuesday cash session is one of eight data-quiet US sessions per calendar quarter where no top-tier US release lands before the 5:00 PM ET close. The historical two-year intraday range on data-quiet Tuesdays across the 2015 to 2025 window runs 2 to 4 basis points, half the release-day distribution. The session’s function is position adjustment, not repricing.

The overnight Globex ran the two-year futures inside a 3.515 to 3.548 percent implied cash-equivalent band. The Asia session absorbed the Monday US close without a break of the Thursday-to-Monday 3 basis point band. The London handoff at 3:00 ET ran a 20 percent tighter implied band than the Asia session, consistent with the historical London-session compression on data-quiet Tuesdays.

The Wednesday setup this reads into

Waller’s 10:00 ET Wednesday remarks are the first FOMC voter appearance on the labor side of the dual mandate since the June 6 NFP soft print and the Monday ISM Services employment 49.4. The Peterson Institute address format runs a 30-minute prepared remarks block plus a 20-minute moderated Q&A, and Waller’s prior five Peterson appearances have run an implied two-year move of 4 to 7 basis points on the intraday tape during the Q&A window.

The 3:00 PM ET G.19 May consumer credit print lands into a two-year that has already absorbed the Waller move. The April print showed total consumer credit at a 4.2 percent seasonally adjusted annualized rate with revolving up 6.1 percent. A May revolving read at 7 percent or firmer carries the household-side confirmation on the labor-softening tape. A May revolving read at 5 percent or softer carries the cautious-consumer signal that pulls the December cut past 57 percent.

The nine-session pre-CPI window

The June CPI print at 8:30 ET Wednesday July 15 closes a nine-session window that opened on the Monday July 6 ISM Services release. Nine sessions is one of the tighter pre-CPI windows on the 2026 calendar, compressed by the July 4 three-day close that pulled the release calendar forward. The Tuesday session sits at position two of nine inside the window, and the May core CPI print at 0.28 percent month-over-month is the base the strip prices the June read against.

The two-year forward on the September to December window at the Monday close ran an implied 35 to 41 basis points of cumulative cuts through the December meeting. The pre-CPI window nine-session distribution on the 2015 to 2025 sample runs a plus or minus 6 basis point cumulative move on the front-cut expectation, with 68 percent of the total moving on the CPI release day itself. The pre-release eight sessions carry the 32 percent balance, and the Tuesday quiet-session position adjustment is the second contribution to that count.

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