The US cash Treasury tape opens Thursday July 9 into a two-release morning: weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 ET and the Census May monthly wholesale trade print at 10:00 ET. The session is the first on the other side of the Wednesday Waller remarks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Federal Reserve G.19 May consumer credit release. Six sessions remain to the June CPI print at 8:30 ET Wednesday July 15. The two-year opens Thursday inside a 3.50 to 3.55 percent post-Waller band, the September 17 cut probability sits at 97 percent, and the December 10 second cut probability sits at 54 percent on the Wednesday close.
The 8:30 ET weekly claims window
Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4 print at 8:30 ET into a four-week average that closed the prior release at 231,000 on the June 6 soft NFP handoff. The 228 to 235 thousand consensus band traces the seasonal factor around the July 4 holiday, which historically pulls the raw print into the 215 to 245 thousand window on the first post-holiday claims read. The continuing claims series, one week lagged, closed the June 27 week at 1.86 million, inside the 1.82 to 1.90 million three-month band that has held since the April open. A print above the 235 thousand upper consensus on initial claims pulls the December second cut probability into the 56 to 60 percent band and takes the two-year down two to four basis points on the release. A print inside the band holds the strip at the Wednesday close.
The reference frame for the labor read is Waller’s Wednesday remarks at the Peterson Institute. The Waller labor-cooling framing set the position the claims print reads into. Claims are the highest-frequency labor series available on the calendar between the June NFP release on June 6 and the July NFP release scheduled for August 1, and the print is one of two labor prints inside the pre-CPI runway. The other is the JOLTS May report, which releases Tuesday July 14, one session before the June CPI print.
The 10:00 ET wholesale trade window
Census monthly wholesale trade for May prints at 10:00 ET. Wholesale inventories closed the April advance at plus 0.2 percent month-over-month and the April final at plus 0.3 percent, one revision inside the two-basis-point historical revision band. The inventory-to-sales ratio closed April at 1.33, one tick above the 1.31 to 1.32 twelve-month range that has held through the trade adjustment cycle. Wholesale trade is a Q2 GDP nowcast input: the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker weights the inventory contribution off the monthly wholesale and manufacturing trade prints, and the July 9 read is the final wholesale trade input before the advance Q2 GDP release scheduled for July 30, the same day as the FOMC statement.
The six-session pre-CPI runway
Six US sessions remain to the June CPI print at 8:30 ET Wednesday July 15. The consensus band on June headline CPI sits at plus 0.22 to plus 0.28 percent month-over-month and the consensus band on June core CPI sits at plus 0.24 to plus 0.30 percent month-over-month. The May core landed at plus 0.26 percent on the June 11 release, and the June print is the first read on the tariff pass-through to core goods after the April rate schedule shifted the effective duty on May imports. The June PPI print lands at 8:30 ET Friday July 11, and the July NY Fed inflation expectations print lands at 11:00 ET Monday July 14, two sessions before CPI.
The September strip vs December strip term spread closed Wednesday at 9 basis points, unchanged on the Waller and G.19 dual window. The historical spread expansion on the two sessions before a CPI print averages 3 basis points across the 2023 to 2025 window. The Thursday and Friday sessions carry the two data prints that set the term spread the strip walks into the Monday and Tuesday pre-CPI sessions. The 10-year Treasury auction reopening closed Wednesday’s post-Waller session inside its expected pricing band, and the 30-year auction reopening prints Thursday at 1:00 PM ET, two hours before the London close, with the pre-auction concession the strip built through the Wednesday morning.
The Thursday tape is a two-window release day inside a six-session pre-CPI window on the last week before the July FOMC blackout opens at midnight Saturday July 19.