The US cash Treasury tape opens Friday July 10 into a quiet data day. Thursday closed the two-release morning: weekly initial jobless claims printed 228 thousand for the week ending July 4, inside the 228 to 235 thousand consensus band and one thousand below the prior four-week average of 231 thousand. Census May wholesale inventories printed plus 0.2 percent month-over-month, in line with the April final at plus 0.3 percent and inside the two-basis-point historical revision band. The inventory-to-sales ratio printed 1.32, inside the 1.31 to 1.33 twelve-month range. Continuing claims for the June 27 reference week printed 1.87 million, inside the 1.82 to 1.90 million three-month band. Five sessions remain to the June CPI print at 8:30 ET Wednesday July 15.
The Friday quiet-data setup
The Friday calendar carries no Tier-1 US macro release. The next US release lands Monday, when the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations for July prints at 11:00 ET. The two prints between Friday’s open and the CPI release are the NY Fed SCE Monday and JOLTS May Tuesday July 14 at 10:00 ET. The Friday tape is a positioning session into the weekend risk hold and the four-session pre-CPI runway that opens Monday morning.
The Fed speaker calendar is dark from Waller’s Wednesday Peterson Institute remarks through the July 30 FOMC statement. The communications blackout window opens at midnight Saturday July 19, ten days from the Friday open. Between the Friday session and the blackout, the Fed’s next scheduled communication is the Beige Book release on Wednesday July 15 at 2:00 PM ET, six hours after the June CPI print. No FOMC voter has a scheduled public appearance on the Friday calendar.
The 30-year auction digest and the term-spread hold
The 30-year Treasury reopening auction cleared Thursday at 1:00 PM ET at a stop-out yield of 4.86 percent, inside the 1:00 PM ET pre-auction WI level of 4.87 percent. The bid-to-cover ratio printed 2.44, inside the six-auction average of 2.42. Indirect bidders took 68.3 percent, inside the six-auction average of 67.9 percent. The auction cleared without a tail. The 10-year auction reopening from Wednesday and the 30-year reopening from Thursday together close the Q3 refunding window’s long-end cycle before the pre-CPI runway.
The September strip vs December strip term spread closed Thursday at 9 basis points, unchanged on the Thursday claims and wholesale trade prints. The two-year closed Thursday at 3.52 percent, inside the 3.50 to 3.55 percent post-Waller band. The 10-year closed at 4.28 percent, unchanged on the Wednesday close. The September 17 cut probability holds at 97 percent and the December 10 second cut probability holds at 55 percent, one point above the Wednesday close on the softer-than-band claims print.
The four-session pre-CPI runway
Four US sessions remain from the Monday open to the June CPI print at 8:30 ET Wednesday July 15. The consensus band on June headline CPI sits at plus 0.22 to plus 0.28 percent month-over-month and the consensus band on June core CPI sits at plus 0.24 to plus 0.30 percent month-over-month. The May core landed at plus 0.26 percent on the June 11 release. The June print is the first read on the tariff pass-through to core goods after the April rate schedule shifted the effective duty on May imports, and the core goods weight inside the June basket carries the primary signal on the pass-through.
The June PPI print is scheduled for 8:30 ET Thursday July 16, the session after CPI. The two-day CPI-to-PPI window is the tightest of the pre-blackout runway. The Q2 GDP advance release prints 8:30 ET Wednesday July 30, the same morning as the FOMC statement at 2:00 PM ET, closing the July data window into the August FOMC minutes cycle.
The Friday tape is a positioning session on the last day before the four-session pre-CPI runway opens Monday, with no Fed speak, no Tier-1 data, and a term-spread that closed the Thursday two-release window unchanged from the Wednesday post-Waller level.