The US cash Treasury tape reopens Monday July 13 at 8:00 ET into a three-hour window before the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations for July at 11:00 ET, the first Tier-1 US data print of the four-session pre-CPI runway. New York Fed president Williams speaks at a Council on Foreign Relations event at 12:15 ET, the first live Fed voice on the pre-blackout calendar. The two-year yield closed Friday July 10 at 3.52 percent, down three basis points on the week. Fed-funds futures closed with the September 17 cut at 97 percent and the December 10 second cut at 55 percent. Two sessions of live Fed speak remain before the Wednesday July 15 June CPI print at 8:30 ET.

The three lines the SCE prints at 11:00 ET

The one-year median inflation expectation held at 3.1 percent in June, inside the 2.9 to 3.2 percent twelve-month band the desk reads as anchored. A July print at or above 3.3 percent on that line lands two sessions before the CPI print and complicates the Wednesday read. A print at or under 3.0 percent confirms the anchor and adds one to two points to the December second cut probability on the intraday tape.

The three-year median held at 2.9 percent in June, one tick above the pre-tariff-cycle baseline of 2.8 percent. The five-year median held at 2.8 percent. The three-to-five year corridor is the medium-term-expectations line the Fed reads for the disanchoring risk, not the near-term print.

The one-year gasoline expectation ran at 4.1 percent in June, the tenth consecutive monthly reading above 3 percent. The year-ahead food expectation ran at 5.3 percent in June, the marker the Fed reads for the tariff passthrough into groceries. A July print with food expectations at or above 5.5 percent feeds directly into the Michigan preliminary on Friday July 17 and the CPI food-at-home line on Wednesday.

Williams at 12:15 ET, the last CFR event before blackout

Williams at the Council on Foreign Relations at 12:15 ET is the first live Fed voice on the pre-blackout calendar. The FOMC blackout window opens midnight Saturday July 19 and holds through the July 30 press conference. Williams last spoke at length on June 26 at the Bank for International Settlements annual conference, where he framed the September cut as a base case contingent on the June and July core CPI prints landing at or under 0.25 percent month-over-month. The May core CPI print at 0.24 percent cleared the first half of the condition. The June print on Wednesday clears or fails the second half.

The line the strip reads on the Williams remarks is any language differentiating the September size question (25 basis points versus 50 basis points) from the September timing question (September versus November). The 97 percent September probability is a timing certainty read. The residual 10 basis point overweight inside the September implied cut is the size question, which Williams has room to move by two to four points either direction on the intraday tape.

The Monday session as a position-setter for Tuesday JOLTS

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May prints at 10:00 ET Tuesday July 14. The April openings print at 7.39 million held above the 7.2 million pre-pandemic equilibrium. A May openings print under 7.3 million with a quits rate at or under 2.0 percent aligns with the labor-cooling framing that runs through the September pricing. The Monday SCE plus Williams window sets the position the strip carries into the Tuesday JOLTS release, and the Tuesday close sets the position into the Wednesday CPI print.

The September SR3 contract at Friday’s close implied a yield of 3.99 percent against the current 4.34 percent benchmark, embedding a 35 basis point cut expectation for the September 17 meeting. The December SR3 at 3.61 percent embeds the 55 percent second cut probability plus the tail on a third cut before year-end. The two contracts frame the intraday reaction function on the SCE, the Williams remarks, and the Tuesday JOLTS print.

The pre-open band the two-year has to hold

The Sunday Globex ran the two-year futures inside an implied cash-equivalent yield band of 3.51 to 3.54 percent. The band is tighter than the Friday close because the four-session pre-CPI runway carries no discretionary flow. A break of the 3.55 percent ceiling on the pre-print tape walks the September size question toward a clean 25 basis point print and pulls the December second cut back to the 50 percent band. A break of the 3.49 percent floor pushes the September size question toward the 35 to 40 basis point overweight and pulls the December second cut through 60 percent.

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