The US cash Treasury tape opens Thursday July 23 at 8:00 ET into FOMC blackout day four ahead of the Wednesday July 30 decision, with weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 ET and June new home sales at 10:00 ET, second housing print of the blackout week. Wednesday’s close carried the ten-year at 4.05 percent implied cash-equivalent yield after the 16 billion 20-year Treasury reopening stopped through the when-issued yield by 0.2 basis points with indirect bidders at 75.4 percent. Fed-funds futures priced the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 66 percent at Wednesday’s close, up one point on the day. The 8:30 labor print and the 10:00 housing print set the position the strip carries into Friday’s flash S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs at 9:45 ET, the last pre-blackout tape read before the July 30 FOMC statement.

The overnight band the ten-year has to hold

The ten-year printed 4.05 percent implied cash-equivalent yield at Wednesday’s close, holding the middle of the 4.03 to 4.08 percent band the tape has carried since Sunday Globex. A break of the 4.09 percent ceiling through the 8:30 claims print walks the December second cut back inside the 60 percent line and reads as fade at the priced two-cut path. A break of the 4.02 percent floor through the 10:00 housing print pushes the December second cut past the 70 percent line and reads as continuation of the June CPI and June PPI moderation the desk carried into blackout.

The 2s10s sat at 64 basis points at Wednesday’s close, one basis point steeper on the day. The DXY ran 100.6 to 101.0 on the blackout tape. The December 2027 SR3 contract held an implied terminal of 3.15 percent, one basis point lower on the day.

Weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 ET

The Department of Labor publishes weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending July 18 at 8:30 ET. The prior week print at 221 thousand held the eight-week range midpoint and the third consecutive weekly read inside the 215 to 235 thousand channel that has held since May. The four-week moving average at 223 thousand printed flat on the week and inside the twelve-month range.

The line the strip reads on Thursday’s print is the four-week moving average against the 230 thousand threshold. A four-week average holding at or under 225 thousand confirms the labor-side stability the June NFP print at 139 thousand payrolls and 4.1 percent unemployment rate has been carrying and reads as consistent with the two-cut year priced into fed-funds futures. A four-week average pushing above 230 thousand with a weekly print above 240 thousand pulls the third-cut probability by March 2027 above 50 percent and complicates the terminal-rate arithmetic the SR3 strip carries.

Continuing claims for the week ending July 11 land in the same release. The prior week print at 1.955 million held the twelve-month range and printed the eighth consecutive week inside the 1.94 to 1.97 million band. A continuing-claims print above 1.98 million reads as the re-employment window widening and confirms the labor-side softening the June JOLTS quit rate at 2.0 percent flagged into blackout.

June new home sales at 10:00 ET

The Census Bureau publishes June new residential sales at 10:00 ET. The May print landed at 623 thousand SAAR, holding the twelve-month range midpoint and the third consecutive month inside the 610 to 640 thousand channel. The months of supply at 9.8 held the highest print since October 2022. The median new-home sale price at 412 thousand dollars printed the first year-over-year decline in fourteen months, running 1.4 percent below the year-ago read.

The line the strip reads on the June print is the months of supply reading against the median price change. A June months of supply print holding at or above 9.5 with the median price change staying negative year over year confirms the housing-side inventory build that the Wednesday existing-home-sales print at 4.02 million SAAR and 4.7 months of supply already flagged. A months of supply print falling to 9.0 or lower with the median price change bouncing back to flat year over year reads as inventory absorption and complicates the shelter-disinflation channel the June CPI at minus 0.4 percent headline leaned on.

The inventory of new homes for sale at 506 thousand in May held the twelve-month high. A June inventory print above 510 thousand confirms the builder-side supply response and reinforces the shelter-side price moderation the strip has been pricing into the September and December cuts.

The Friday setup

The flash S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs for July land Friday July 25 at 9:45 ET, last pre-blackout data print before the July 30 FOMC statement. The June manufacturing final at 51.4 held the third print above the 50 line. The June services final at 53.2 held the twelve-month high. The input prices and output charges sub-indices on the flash print carry the last read on the services-side pricing channel the desk carries into the statement.

A flash services PMI at or above 53.5 with output charges holding above the 55 line flags services-side pricing pressure the September cut has to absorb without repricing the two-cut year. A flash services PMI falling under 52.0 with output charges under 54 confirms the services-side moderation the June CPI and June PPI prints leaned on and pushes the December second cut past 70 percent into the July 30 statement.

Where the priced curve sits going in

The September 17 cut is priced at 99 percent. The strip does not carry a live path to move that inside blackout. The active trade is the December 10 second cut probability at 66 percent, up one point on Wednesday and eleven points on the week.

The December 2026 SR3 contract implied a year-end fed-funds rate of 3.78 percent, one basis point lower on the day and seven basis points lower on the week. The March 2027 SR3 contract implied a first-quarter 2027 rate of 3.50 percent, one basis point lower on the day and consistent with a third cut priced at 42 percent by March.

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