The US cash Treasury tape opens Wednesday July 22 at 8:00 ET into FOMC blackout day three ahead of the Wednesday July 30 decision, with June existing home sales at 10:00 ET and the 16 billion 20-year Treasury reopening at 1:00 ET, second coupon supply print of the blackout week. Sunday to Tuesday Globex ran the ten-year inside an implied cash yield band of 4.03 to 4.08 percent. Fed-funds futures priced the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 65 percent at Friday’s close. Tuesday’s Philly non-manufacturing print and two-year auction stop left the December second-cut probability the active trade. The 10:00 housing print and the 1:00 reopening set the position the strip carries into Thursday’s June new home sales at 10:00 ET and Friday’s flash S&P Global PMIs at 9:45 ET.

The overnight band the ten-year has to hold

The ten-year carried a 4.03 to 4.08 percent implied cash-equivalent range across Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday Globex, with the tape settling toward the middle of the band into the Wednesday open. A break of the 4.09 percent ceiling on the pre-print tape walks the December second cut back inside the 60 percent line and reads as fade at the priced two-cut path. A break of the 4.02 percent floor through the 10:00 housing print pushes the December second cut past the 70 percent line and reads as continuation of the June CPI, June PPI, and services-side moderation the desk carried into blackout.

The 2s10s sat at 63 basis points at Friday’s close and held that shape through the two-year stop. The DXY ran 100.7 to 101.0 on the blackout tape. The December 2027 SR3 contract held an implied terminal of 3.16 percent, unchanged on the week.

June existing home sales at 10:00 ET

The National Association of Realtors publishes June existing home sales at 10:00 ET. The May print landed at a 4.03 million SAAR, holding the twelve-month range floor and the third consecutive month inside the 4.0 to 4.1 million channel. The months of supply at 4.6 printed the highest reading since 2019. The median existing-home sale price at 419 thousand dollars ran one percent above the year-ago read, the flattest year-over-year print in nine months.

The line the strip reads on the June print is the months of supply reading against the median price change. A June months of supply print holding at or above 4.5 with the median price change falling under plus one percent year over year confirms the housing-side inventory build that softens the shelter component the desk has been watching into the July 30 statement. A months of supply print falling to 4.3 or lower with the median price change bouncing back above plus two percent year over year reads as inventory absorption and complicates the shelter-disinflation channel the June CPI leaned on.

The first-time buyer share at 31 percent in May held the twelve-month high. A June first-time buyer print above 32 percent confirms the demand-side response to the front-end mortgage rate compression the two-year rally has been feeding. A first-time buyer print collapsing back to 28 percent or lower points at affordability still binding despite the rate move.

16 billion 20-year Treasury reopening at 1:00 ET

The 20-year Treasury reopening at 1:00 ET sizes 16 billion, second coupon supply print of the blackout week and matched to the June reopening size. The June reopening stopped through the when-issued yield by 0.4 basis points with a bid-to-cover at 2.62 and indirect bidders at 74.8 percent, both inside the twelve-auction average. The direct bidders took 19.9 percent and the primary dealers were left with 5.3 percent, a middle-of-range dealer take.

The lines the strip reads on Wednesday’s stop are the tail against the when-issued yield and the indirect bidder share at the long end. A stop-through inside 0.4 basis points with indirect bidders at or above 74 percent confirms the long-end demand tone through the June CPI window and reads as continuation of the priced two-cut year plus a curve that can carry supply without a term-premium repricing. A tail of 1.0 basis point or wider with indirects falling to 70 percent or lower signals fade at the long end and pushes the term-premium trade back into the December second-cut probability calculation.

The when-issued yield ran the Sunday to Tuesday Globex at 4.64 to 4.68 percent, tracking the ten-year plus a stable 58 to 62 basis point long-end spread. A when-issued yield walking above 4.70 percent into the 1:00 stop reads as fade being priced ahead of the auction and shrinks the tail-risk range around the print.

The Thursday and Friday setup

The June new home sales land Thursday July 23 at 10:00 ET. The May print at 623 thousand SAAR held the twelve-month range midpoint. The months of supply at 9.8 held the highest print since October 2022. The median new-home sale price at 412 thousand dollars printed the first year-over-year decline in fourteen months.

The flash S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs for July land Friday July 25 at 9:45 ET. The June manufacturing final at 51.4 held the third print above the 50 line. The June services final at 53.2 held the twelve-month high. The input prices and output charges sub-indices on the flash print carry the last pre-FOMC read on the services-side pricing channel before the July 30 statement.

The Wednesday close positions the strip on two lines going into Thursday: whether the existing-home-sales and new-home-sales prints together reinforce the inventory-build channel that softens shelter into the September and December cuts, and whether the 20-year reopening stop confirms long-end demand can carry supply through blackout without a term-premium repricing that would push the two-cut arithmetic back into the 60 percent range.

Where the priced curve sits going in

The September 17 cut is priced at 99 percent. The strip does not carry a live path to move that inside blackout. The active trade is the December 10 second cut probability at 65 percent, up ten points on the week and past the 50 percent threshold that reads as the market having crossed from a single-cut into a two-cut year.

The December 2026 SR3 contract implied a year-end fed-funds rate of 3.79 percent, six basis points lower on the week. The March 2027 SR3 contract implied a first-quarter 2027 rate of 3.51 percent, ten basis points lower on the week and consistent with a third cut priced at 41 percent by March.

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