ISM manufacturing employment printed 52.8 in July, the first expansion read in fourteen months

The July ISM manufacturing employment sub-index at 52.8 broke a fourteen-month contraction streak. History says a single-month cross above 50 after a long contraction has a 40 to 50 percent false-positive rate before manufacturing payrolls follow.

Aug 4, 2026 Read more

rates

PMI diffusion index mechanics: what a print above 50 actually measures, and why a headline miss walks the strip further than the payroll surprise does

A PMI is a diffusion index, not an average. Every respondent gets one of three answers (better, same, worse), and the headline is the share saying better plus half the share saying same. That construction is why the 49 to 51 band is the recession-versus-expansion knife-edge, why a two-point miss on the headline is a two-and-a-half-sigma event historically, and why the front-end rates desk carries the ISM manufacturing print with a hair-trigger the AHE line does not get.

Aug 3

gdp

The Employment Cost Index is the wages line the Fed prices against: why the quarterly ECI outranks the monthly average hourly earnings print

Average hourly earnings is the wages line the tape reads on the first Friday of every month. The Employment Cost Index is the wages line the Fed reads at the end of every quarter. The ECI corrects for the two composition biases that push AHE around on a monthly cadence (mix shift across industries and mix shift within occupations), and it splits total compensation into wages, salaries, and benefits. When the FOMC statement or the SEP paragraph talks about wages, it is talking about ECI.

Aug 2

gdp

The one line the tape reads on durable goods day

Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft is the core capex read, and its shipments twin feeds the equipment-investment line of GDP.

Jul 23

rates Jul 22

The FOMC blackout: what stops for ten days, what keeps trading, and how the strip re-prices when the mic opens back up

rates Jul 21

Bid-to-cover and the tail: how to read a Treasury auction stop in five numbers

gdp Jul 19

The LEI diffusion index and the 47 recession signal

Aug 4 ADP National Employment Report July release August 5, ISM Services PMI July release August 5, CME FedWatch Tuesday close August 4, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026, BLS Employment Situation July preview wednesday-openadp

Wednesday August 5: July ADP employment at 8:15 ET and July ISM services PMI at 10 ET, breadth test on Monday's ISM manufacturing surprise ahead of Friday's July NFP

US cash Treasury opens Wednesday August 5 into the July ADP employment report at 8:15 ET and the July ISM services PMI at 10 ET, the breadth read on Monday's July ISM manufacturing print at 55.6 that walked the December 10 second cut probability from 72 percent Friday to 58 percent Monday close. June ADP printed 119 thousand and June ISM services headline held 50.8 with prices paid at 66.9, the highest services prices-paid read since November 2022. The Wednesday combination sets the position the strip carries into Friday's July nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 ET and resolves whether Monday's ISM manufacturing surprise reads as breadth across the service side or as a one-off goods print.

Aug 3 ISM Manufacturing PMI July 2026 headline 55.6, BLS JOLTS June release August 4, US Census Bureau Factory Orders June release August 4, CME FedWatch Monday close August 3, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 tuesday-openism-manufacturing

Tuesday August 4: Monday's ISM manufacturing at 55.6 blows the 49 to 51 band and walks back the two-cut year, June JOLTS and June factory orders at 10 ET

US cash Treasury opens Tuesday August 4 into the June JOLTS release at 10 ET and June factory orders at 10 ET, first data prints after Monday's ISM manufacturing PMI at 55.6 blew the 49.0 to 51.0 band the strip carried and put the December second cut back on the table for reprice. The July ISM production sub-index at 58.5 (from 51.4) and the employment sub-index at 52.8 (from 44.2, first expansion print in fifteen months) walked the December second cut probability from 72 percent Friday to 58 percent Monday close through fed-funds futures. The 10 ET JOLTS print and the 10 ET factory orders print set the position the strip carries into Wednesday's ADP and July ISM services and Friday's July nonfarm payrolls.

Aug 2 ISM Manufacturing PMI July, US Census Bureau Construction Spending June, BLS Employment Situation July preview, CME FedWatch Friday close August 1, Federal Reserve FOMC statement July 30 2026 monday-openweek-ahead

Monday August 3: Week ahead, July NFP Friday, July ISM manufacturing PMI at 10 ET, first data week after the July 30 FOMC hold

US cash Treasury opens Monday August 3 with July ISM manufacturing PMI at 10 ET and June construction spending at 10 ET, opening the first data week after the July 30 FOMC hold and running into July nonfarm payrolls Friday. The July 30 statement held the target range at 4.25 to 4.50 percent as priced 99 percent, and Powell in the 2:30 ET press conference confirmed the September 17 cut path is live. Fed-funds futures held the September cut at 99 percent and lifted the December 10 second cut to 72 percent at Friday's close, up five points on the week. This week resolves whether the two-cut year priced in the strip carries into August tape or repositions on a soft July NFP.

Jul 24 NAR Existing Home Sales June 2026, Census Bureau New Residential Sales June 2026, Department of Labor Weekly UI Claims week ending July 18, Census Bureau Advance Durable Goods Report June 2026, S&P Global Flash US PMI July preliminary, CME FedWatch weekly close July 24, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 weekly-recapfomc-blackout

Week recap: FOMC blackout week one, June housing prints confirm inventory build, June durable goods core capex holds at 0.3 percent, September cut probability holds 99 percent, December second cut closes 70 percent

The July 20 to 24 week ran the first full FOMC blackout window ahead of the July 30 decision. June existing home sales printed at 4.02 million SAAR with 4.7 months of supply, June new home sales printed at 631 thousand SAAR with 9.6 months of supply, weekly initial jobless claims printed at 219 thousand, June advance durable goods orders printed at minus 5.2 percent headline with core capex at plus 0.3 percent, and the S&P Global Flash July composite output printed at 52.4. The September 17 cut probability closed the week at 99 percent, unchanged. The December 10 second cut probability closed at 70 percent, up five points on the week. The July 30 FOMC statement lands 2:00 ET Wednesday, ninety minutes after the advance Q2 GDP print at 8:30 ET.

Jul 23 US Census Bureau Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers Shipments Inventories and Orders, S&P Global Flash US PMI, CME FedWatch Thursday close July 23, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 friday-opendurable-goods

Friday July 24: June advance durable goods orders at 8:30 ET, S&P Global Flash US PMI for July at 9:45 ET, FOMC blackout day five and week close into the July 30 decision

US cash Treasury opens Friday July 24 into FOMC blackout day five with June advance durable goods orders at 8:30 ET and the S&P Global Flash US PMI for July at 9:45 ET, last pre-decision data print of the week. Thursday closed with the ten-year at 4.04 percent implied cash after weekly initial claims at 219 thousand and June new home sales at 631 thousand SAAR. Fed-funds futures priced the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 67 percent at Thursday's close, up one point on the day. The 8:30 capital goods line and the 9:45 services PMI position the strip into Monday and Tuesday blackout tape ahead of the July 30 statement.

Jul 22 Census Bureau New Residential Sales, Department of Labor Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims, CME FedWatch Wednesday close July 22, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 thursday-opennew-home-sales

Thursday July 23: June new home sales at 10:00 ET, weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 ET, FOMC blackout day four into next Wednesday's decision

US cash Treasury opens Thursday July 23 into FOMC blackout day four with weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 ET and June new home sales at 10:00 ET, the second housing print of the blackout week. Wednesday closed with the ten-year at 4.05 percent implied cash and the 20-year reopening stopping through the when-issued yield by 0.2 basis points. Fed-funds futures priced the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 66 percent at Wednesday's close, up one point on the day. The 8:30 labor print and the 10:00 housing print position the strip into Friday's flash S&P Global PMIs at 9:45 ET, last pre-blackout tape read before the July 30 statement.

@% publishes short macroeconomic articles. The number, the context, why it moved. Most macro journalism buries one data point under fifteen paragraphs. We do the opposite. Published by AT Media Group. No stock picks. No padding.