The Employment Cost Index is the wages line the Fed prices against: why the quarterly ECI outranks the monthly average hourly earnings print

Average hourly earnings is the wages line the tape reads on the first Friday of every month. The Employment Cost Index is the wages line the Fed reads at the end of every quarter. The ECI corrects for the two composition biases that push AHE around on a monthly cadence (mix shift across industries and mix shift within occupations), and it splits total compensation into wages, salaries, and benefits. When the FOMC statement or the SEP paragraph talks about wages, it is talking about ECI.

Aug 2, 2026 Read more

gdp

The one line the tape reads on durable goods day

Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft is the core capex read, and its shipments twin feeds the equipment-investment line of GDP.

Jul 23

rates

The FOMC blackout: what stops for ten days, what keeps trading, and how the strip re-prices when the mic opens back up

The Federal Reserve enforces a ten-day communications blackout around every scheduled FOMC meeting. The rule removes committee members from the public tape starting the second Saturday before the meeting and ending the Thursday after. What stops is speeches, interviews, and press appearances by voting and non-voting officials. What keeps trading is auctions, data releases, and fed-funds futures. The strip repositions on the residual signal the two live inputs still provide: the schedule of Treasury supply and the incoming print calendar.

Jul 22

rates

Bid-to-cover and the tail: how to read a Treasury auction stop in five numbers

Every US Treasury coupon auction closes with five numbers that decide whether the strip reads the stop as strong, average, or fade: the high yield, the bid-to-cover ratio, the tail versus the when-issued yield, the indirect bidder share, and the primary dealer take. Together they tell you how deep the demand ran and where the residual duration sat down.

Jul 21

gdp Jul 19

The LEI diffusion index and the 47 recession signal

rates Jul 13

Real yields: what TIPS tell you that nominal Treasuries don't

inflation Jul 9

Why the tariff pass-through hits a 19 percent slice of CPI

Aug 3 ISM Manufacturing PMI July 2026 headline 55.6, BLS JOLTS June release August 4, US Census Bureau Factory Orders June release August 4, CME FedWatch Monday close August 3, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 tuesday-openism-manufacturing

Tuesday August 4: Monday's ISM manufacturing at 55.6 blows the 49 to 51 band and walks back the two-cut year, June JOLTS and June factory orders at 10 ET

US cash Treasury opens Tuesday August 4 into the June JOLTS release at 10 ET and June factory orders at 10 ET, first data prints after Monday's ISM manufacturing PMI at 55.6 blew the 49.0 to 51.0 band the strip carried and put the December second cut back on the table for reprice. The July ISM production sub-index at 58.5 (from 51.4) and the employment sub-index at 52.8 (from 44.2, first expansion print in fifteen months) walked the December second cut probability from 72 percent Friday to 58 percent Monday close through fed-funds futures. The 10 ET JOLTS print and the 10 ET factory orders print set the position the strip carries into Wednesday's ADP and July ISM services and Friday's July nonfarm payrolls.

Aug 2 ISM Manufacturing PMI July, US Census Bureau Construction Spending June, BLS Employment Situation July preview, CME FedWatch Friday close August 1, Federal Reserve FOMC statement July 30 2026 monday-openweek-ahead

Monday August 3: Week ahead, July NFP Friday, July ISM manufacturing PMI at 10 ET, first data week after the July 30 FOMC hold

US cash Treasury opens Monday August 3 with July ISM manufacturing PMI at 10 ET and June construction spending at 10 ET, opening the first data week after the July 30 FOMC hold and running into July nonfarm payrolls Friday. The July 30 statement held the target range at 4.25 to 4.50 percent as priced 99 percent, and Powell in the 2:30 ET press conference confirmed the September 17 cut path is live. Fed-funds futures held the September cut at 99 percent and lifted the December 10 second cut to 72 percent at Friday's close, up five points on the week. This week resolves whether the two-cut year priced in the strip carries into August tape or repositions on a soft July NFP.

Jul 24 NAR Existing Home Sales June 2026, Census Bureau New Residential Sales June 2026, Department of Labor Weekly UI Claims week ending July 18, Census Bureau Advance Durable Goods Report June 2026, S&P Global Flash US PMI July preliminary, CME FedWatch weekly close July 24, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 weekly-recapfomc-blackout

Week recap: FOMC blackout week one, June housing prints confirm inventory build, June durable goods core capex holds at 0.3 percent, September cut probability holds 99 percent, December second cut closes 70 percent

The July 20 to 24 week ran the first full FOMC blackout window ahead of the July 30 decision. June existing home sales printed at 4.02 million SAAR with 4.7 months of supply, June new home sales printed at 631 thousand SAAR with 9.6 months of supply, weekly initial jobless claims printed at 219 thousand, June advance durable goods orders printed at minus 5.2 percent headline with core capex at plus 0.3 percent, and the S&P Global Flash July composite output printed at 52.4. The September 17 cut probability closed the week at 99 percent, unchanged. The December 10 second cut probability closed at 70 percent, up five points on the week. The July 30 FOMC statement lands 2:00 ET Wednesday, ninety minutes after the advance Q2 GDP print at 8:30 ET.

Jul 23 US Census Bureau Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers Shipments Inventories and Orders, S&P Global Flash US PMI, CME FedWatch Thursday close July 23, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 friday-opendurable-goods

Friday July 24: June advance durable goods orders at 8:30 ET, S&P Global Flash US PMI for July at 9:45 ET, FOMC blackout day five and week close into the July 30 decision

US cash Treasury opens Friday July 24 into FOMC blackout day five with June advance durable goods orders at 8:30 ET and the S&P Global Flash US PMI for July at 9:45 ET, last pre-decision data print of the week. Thursday closed with the ten-year at 4.04 percent implied cash after weekly initial claims at 219 thousand and June new home sales at 631 thousand SAAR. Fed-funds futures priced the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 67 percent at Thursday's close, up one point on the day. The 8:30 capital goods line and the 9:45 services PMI position the strip into Monday and Tuesday blackout tape ahead of the July 30 statement.

Jul 22 Census Bureau New Residential Sales, Department of Labor Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims, CME FedWatch Wednesday close July 22, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 thursday-opennew-home-sales

Thursday July 23: June new home sales at 10:00 ET, weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 ET, FOMC blackout day four into next Wednesday's decision

US cash Treasury opens Thursday July 23 into FOMC blackout day four with weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 ET and June new home sales at 10:00 ET, the second housing print of the blackout week. Wednesday closed with the ten-year at 4.05 percent implied cash and the 20-year reopening stopping through the when-issued yield by 0.2 basis points. Fed-funds futures priced the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 66 percent at Wednesday's close, up one point on the day. The 8:30 labor print and the 10:00 housing print position the strip into Friday's flash S&P Global PMIs at 9:45 ET, last pre-blackout tape read before the July 30 statement.

Jul 21 National Association of Realtors Existing Home Sales, US Treasury tentative auction schedule, CME FedWatch weekly close July 17, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 wednesday-openexisting-home-sales

Wednesday July 22: June existing home sales at 10:00 ET, 16 billion 20-year Treasury reopening at 1:00 ET, FOMC blackout day three into next Wednesday's decision

US cash Treasury opens Wednesday July 22 into FOMC blackout day three with June existing home sales at 10:00 ET and the 16 billion 20-year Treasury reopening at 1:00 ET, second coupon supply print of the blackout week. Sunday to Tuesday Globex ran the ten-year in a 4.03 to 4.08 percent implied cash band. Fed-funds futures priced the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 65 percent at Friday's close, with the December print still the active trade after Tuesday's Philly non-manufacturing survey and two-year stop. The 10:00 housing print and the 1:00 reopening stop position the strip into Thursday's new home sales and flash S&P PMIs.

@% publishes short macroeconomic articles. The number, the context, why it moved. Most macro journalism buries one data point under fifteen paragraphs. We do the opposite. Published by AT Media Group. No stock picks. No padding.