NFIB net percent of small firms planning to raise compensation prints tomorrow at 6 ET, and the June read at plus 21 percent maps to the CPI supercore services line the September SEP will incorporate two quarters out.
The strip enters the second weekend of August with the September cut priced firmly above 90 percent. Six data prints and one non-data event stand between the tape and the September decision. The July CPI release, the July FOMC minutes, and Powell's Friday morning Jackson Hole slot carry the three largest independent repricing weights inside the sequence. Core PCE at month-end is the last read that lands before the blackout, and the strip prices it as a confirming line rather than a moving one.
The initial CES nonfarm payrolls print lands with a first-close establishment-survey response rate near 65 percent. The two-month back-revision incorporates responses closer to 93 percent. The last twelve months of releases have carried a net downward revision of roughly 45 thousand per month across the two revision rounds combined. The strip has learned to price the revision as the higher-signal line, and the desk reads the 8:30 ET stamp as three prints, not one.
The July ISM manufacturing employment sub-index at 52.8 broke a fourteen-month contraction streak. History says a single-month cross above 50 after a long contraction has a 40 to 50 percent false-positive rate before manufacturing payrolls follow.
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