Core goods carry about 19 percent of the CPI-U basket, core services carry about 61 percent, and shelter alone carries 36 percent. The June CPI print reads the tariff pass-through through the smallest of the three.
The September SR3 at a 3.98 percent implied yield prices a 24.5 basis point cut against the 25 basis point benchmark, and the mechanic is the same one every rate desk uses to convert a futures price into a cut probability.
Owners equivalent rent is a survey-derived estimate of what a homeowner would pay to rent their own house. It is 26.8 percent of headline CPI and 10.9 percent of headline PCE, and the way BLS builds it means the series lags market rents by roughly twelve months. That lag has been the single largest reason CPI and PCE disagreed through 2024 and 2025.
Cross-line resolution on the four numbers the desk carries into an NFP print (headline, U-rate, average hourly earnings, and the two-month revision) happens in roughly 17 percent of releases across the 2010 to 2025 window. When all four resolve dovish in a single print, the two-year on-the-run has run an average 6.8 basis point move on the day and the next-meeting cut probability has moved 11 percentage points on average. June 2026 sat inside that base rate.
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