The FOMC blackout: what stops for ten days, what keeps trading, and how the strip re-prices when the mic opens back up

The Federal Reserve enforces a ten-day communications blackout around every scheduled FOMC meeting. The rule removes committee members from the public tape starting the second Saturday before the meeting and ending the Thursday after. What stops is speeches, interviews, and press appearances by voting and non-voting officials. What keeps trading is auctions, data releases, and fed-funds futures. The strip repositions on the residual signal the two live inputs still provide: the schedule of Treasury supply and the incoming print calendar.

Jul 22, 2026 Read more

rates

Bid-to-cover and the tail: how to read a Treasury auction stop in five numbers

Every US Treasury coupon auction closes with five numbers that decide whether the strip reads the stop as strong, average, or fade: the high yield, the bid-to-cover ratio, the tail versus the when-issued yield, the indirect bidder share, and the primary dealer take. Together they tell you how deep the demand ran and where the residual duration sat down.

Jul 21

gdp

The LEI diffusion index and the 47 recession signal

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index prints a headline number every month, but the line the recession callers watch is the six-month diffusion of the ten components under 50, with 47 as the historical signal.

Jul 19

rates

Real yields: what TIPS tell you that nominal Treasuries don't

A nominal Treasury yield mixes the real cost of money with expected inflation. TIPS strip out the inflation piece so the real yield stands alone, and it is the number that matters for capital allocation.

Jul 13

inflation Jul 9

Why the tariff pass-through hits a 19 percent slice of CPI

rates Jul 7

How SR3 futures price Fed cuts

inflation Jul 6

Owners equivalent rent, why CPI shelter inflation lags market rents by twelve months

Jul 22 Census Bureau New Residential Sales, Department of Labor Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims, CME FedWatch Wednesday close July 22, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 thursday-opennew-home-sales

Thursday July 23: June new home sales at 10:00 ET, weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 ET, FOMC blackout day four into next Wednesday's decision

US cash Treasury opens Thursday July 23 into FOMC blackout day four with weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 ET and June new home sales at 10:00 ET, the second housing print of the blackout week. Wednesday closed with the ten-year at 4.05 percent implied cash and the 20-year reopening stopping through the when-issued yield by 0.2 basis points. Fed-funds futures priced the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 66 percent at Wednesday's close, up one point on the day. The 8:30 labor print and the 10:00 housing print position the strip into Friday's flash S&P Global PMIs at 9:45 ET, last pre-blackout tape read before the July 30 statement.

Jul 21 National Association of Realtors Existing Home Sales, US Treasury tentative auction schedule, CME FedWatch weekly close July 17, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 wednesday-openexisting-home-sales

Wednesday July 22: June existing home sales at 10:00 ET, 16 billion 20-year Treasury reopening at 1:00 ET, FOMC blackout day three into next Wednesday's decision

US cash Treasury opens Wednesday July 22 into FOMC blackout day three with June existing home sales at 10:00 ET and the 16 billion 20-year Treasury reopening at 1:00 ET, second coupon supply print of the blackout week. Sunday to Tuesday Globex ran the ten-year in a 4.03 to 4.08 percent implied cash band. Fed-funds futures priced the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 65 percent at Friday's close, with the December print still the active trade after Tuesday's Philly non-manufacturing survey and two-year stop. The 10:00 housing print and the 1:00 reopening stop position the strip into Thursday's new home sales and flash S&P PMIs.

Jul 20 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey, US Treasury tentative auction schedule, CME FedWatch weekly close July 17, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 tuesday-openphilly-fed

Tuesday July 21: Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey for July at 8:30 ET, 69 billion two-year Treasury auction at 1:00 ET, first supply print of FOMC blackout week

US cash Treasury opens Tuesday July 21 into FOMC blackout day two with the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey for July at 8:30 ET and the 69 billion two-year Treasury auction at 1:00 ET, first coupon supply of the blackout week ahead of the July 30 decision. Sunday Globex ran the two-year futures in a 3.42 to 3.45 percent implied cash-equivalent band. Fed-funds futures priced the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 65 percent at Friday's close. The 8:30 print and the 1:00 stop set the position the strip carries into Wednesday's existing home sales.

Jul 19 Chicago Fed National Activity Index release calendar, Conference Board LEI release calendar, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, CME FedWatch weekly close July 17, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 monday-openfomc-blackout

Monday July 20: first FOMC blackout week opens, Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30 ET, Conference Board LEI at 10:00 ET, Dallas Fed manufacturing at 10:30 ET, no live Fed speakers

US cash Treasury reopens Monday July 20 at 8:00 ET into the first full FOMC blackout window ahead of the July 30 decision. Three June and July regional data points land in a two-hour Monday window: the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June at 8:30 ET, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for June at 10:00 ET, and the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook for July at 10:30 ET. No live Fed voices on the tape through the July 30 press conference. The two-year Treasury closed Friday July 17 at 3.43 percent. Fed-funds futures priced the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 65 percent. Monday reads as a position-setter into Tuesday's Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing print and the two-year Treasury auction.

Jul 18 Conference Board LEI release calendar, National Association of Realtors existing home sales calendar, US Census Bureau new home sales calendar, US Census Bureau advance durable goods calendar, S&P Global Flash PMI release calendar, US Department of Labor unemployment insurance weekly claims, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia non-manufacturing survey, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City manufacturing survey, US Treasury auction calendar, CME FedWatch weekly close July 17, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 week-aheadfomc-blackout

Week ahead July 20 to 24: first blackout week to the July 30 FOMC, existing home sales Wednesday, flash PMI and new home sales Thursday, durable goods Friday

The week of July 20 to 24 opens the first full FOMC blackout week ahead of the July 30 decision, with no live Fed speakers on the tape. Monday runs the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for June at 10:00 ET. Tuesday runs the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey at 8:30 ET and a two-year Treasury auction at 1:00 ET. Wednesday runs June existing home sales at 10:00 ET plus a five-year Treasury auction at 1:00 ET. Thursday pairs weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 ET with the S&P Global Flash US PMI for July at 9:45 ET and June new home sales at 10:00 ET, then closes with the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey at 11:00 ET and a seven-year Treasury auction at 1:00 ET. Friday runs the June advance durable goods orders print at 8:30 ET. Fed-funds futures closed Friday July 17 with the September 17 cut probability at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut probability at 65 percent. The strip is priced. The variable that shifts it: the July composite flash PMI landing outside the 51.5 to 53.0 band, or the June core capital goods orders line printing outside the plus 0.1 to plus 0.4 percent band.

Jul 17 US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Summary M06 2026, BLS PPI News Release M06 2026, US Census Bureau Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report (June), University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers preliminary July, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026, CME FedWatch weekly close July 17 weekly-recapjune-cpi

Week recap: June CPI clears at minus 0.4 headline flat core, June PPI confirms at 0.1 and 0.2, September cut probability closes 99 percent, December second cut 65 percent

The July 13 to 17 week ran the June CPI print Wednesday, the June PPI and retail sales prints Thursday, and the Michigan sentiment preliminary Friday. Headline CPI dropped 0.4 percent month-over-month, the largest single-month decline since April 2020, with core flat. PPI final demand printed at plus 0.1 percent headline and plus 0.2 percent core Thursday, both inside consensus. Retail sales headline landed plus 0.2 percent with the control group at plus 0.5 percent. The September 17 cut probability closed the week at 99 percent inside the SR3 strip, up two points from the prior Friday. The December 10 second cut probability closed at 65 percent, up ten points on the week. FOMC blackout opens midnight tonight through the July 30 press conference.

@% publishes short macroeconomic articles. The number, the context, why it moved. Most macro journalism buries one data point under fifteen paragraphs. We do the opposite. Published by AT Media Group. No stock picks. No padding.