The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index prints a headline number every month, but the line the recession callers watch is the six-month diffusion of the ten components under 50, with 47 as the historical signal.
A nominal Treasury yield mixes the real cost of money with expected inflation. TIPS strip out the inflation piece so the real yield stands alone, and it is the number that matters for capital allocation.
Core goods carry about 19 percent of the CPI-U basket, core services carry about 61 percent, and shelter alone carries 36 percent. The June CPI print reads the tariff pass-through through the smallest of the three.
The September SR3 at a 3.98 percent implied yield prices a 24.5 basis point cut against the 25 basis point benchmark, and the mechanic is the same one every rate desk uses to convert a futures price into a cut probability.
@% publishes short macroeconomic articles. The number, the context, why it moved. Most macro journalism buries one data point under fifteen paragraphs. We do the opposite. Published by AT Media Group. No stock picks. No padding.