The CES response-rate gap and why the two-month back-revision is the higher-signal number inside the 8:30 ET NFP release

The initial CES nonfarm payrolls print lands with a first-close establishment-survey response rate near 65 percent. The two-month back-revision incorporates responses closer to 93 percent. The last twelve months of releases have carried a net downward revision of roughly 45 thousand per month across the two revision rounds combined. The strip has learned to price the revision as the higher-signal line, and the desk reads the 8:30 ET stamp as three prints, not one.

Aug 6, 2026 Read more

gdp

ISM manufacturing employment printed 52.8 in July, the first expansion read in fourteen months

The July ISM manufacturing employment sub-index at 52.8 broke a fourteen-month contraction streak. History says a single-month cross above 50 after a long contraction has a 40 to 50 percent false-positive rate before manufacturing payrolls follow.

Aug 4

rates

PMI diffusion index mechanics: what a print above 50 actually measures, and why a headline miss walks the strip further than the payroll surprise does

A PMI is a diffusion index, not an average. Every respondent gets one of three answers (better, same, worse), and the headline is the share saying better plus half the share saying same. That construction is why the 49 to 51 band is the recession-versus-expansion knife-edge, why a two-point miss on the headline is a two-and-a-half-sigma event historically, and why the front-end rates desk carries the ISM manufacturing print with a hair-trigger the AHE line does not get.

Aug 3

gdp

The Employment Cost Index is the wages line the Fed prices against: why the quarterly ECI outranks the monthly average hourly earnings print

Average hourly earnings is the wages line the tape reads on the first Friday of every month. The Employment Cost Index is the wages line the Fed reads at the end of every quarter. The ECI corrects for the two composition biases that push AHE around on a monthly cadence (mix shift across industries and mix shift within occupations), and it splits total compensation into wages, salaries, and benefits. When the FOMC statement or the SEP paragraph talks about wages, it is talking about ECI.

Aug 2

gdp Jul 23

The one line the tape reads on durable goods day

rates Jul 22

The FOMC blackout: what stops for ten days, what keeps trading, and how the strip re-prices when the mic opens back up

rates Jul 21

Bid-to-cover and the tail: how to read a Treasury auction stop in five numbers

Aug 7 BLS Employment Situation July 2026 released August 7, ISM Manufacturing PMI July 2026 released August 4, ISM Services PMI July 2026 released August 5, DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims August 6, BLS Productivity and Costs Q2 2026 preliminary, CME FedWatch weekly close August 7 weekly-recapnfp

Week recap: July NFP prints minus 23 thousand headline first negative cycle print, May and June revised down 103 thousand combined, AHE flat at plus 0.05 percent, ISM manufacturing at 55.6 highest since 2022, ISM services employment at 47.4 back in contraction

The August 3 to 7 week ran the first data window post-FOMC blackout. July ISM manufacturing printed at 55.6, up 2.3 points on the month and the highest reading since May 2022, with the employment sub-index crossing above 50 for the first time in 33 months. July ISM services printed at 54.1, up 0.1 point on the month, with the business activity sub-index at 59.1 and the employment sub-index back in contraction at 47.4. Weekly initial jobless claims printed at 224 thousand. Q2 preliminary nonfarm productivity printed at plus 1.9 percent annualized. July nonfarm payrolls printed at minus 23 thousand headline, the first negative cycle print, with private payrolls at plus 30 thousand and government at minus 53 thousand led by local education. The unemployment rate landed at 4.1 percent, one tick below the 4.2 percent prior read on a labor force participation drop to 61.4 percent. Average hourly earnings printed at plus 0.05 percent month over month, functionally flat, and plus 3.15 percent year over year. The May and June back-revisions took a combined 103 thousand off the initial prints, with May revised from 129 thousand to 63 thousand and June from 57 thousand to 20 thousand. Temporary layoffs jumped 153 thousand on the month to 921 thousand. The September 17 cut probability closed the week sealed at 99 percent. The December 10 second cut probability walked back through the 72 percent line on the Friday print.

Aug 6 BLS Employment Situation July preview, DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims August 6, BLS Productivity and Costs Q2 2026 preliminary, CME FedWatch Thursday close August 6, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 friday-opennfp

Friday August 7: July nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 ET, the print the two-cut year prices against

US cash Treasury opens Friday August 7 into the July nonfarm payrolls release at 8:30 ET, the single print the entire post-FOMC data week has been staged against. The strip carries the September 17 cut at 99 percent and the December 10 second cut at 68 percent going in. A firm headline (above plus 175 thousand, unemployment holding at 4.1 percent, average hourly earnings at plus 0.3 percent) walks the December second cut past 45 percent and prints a single-cut year. A soft headline (under plus 90 thousand, unemployment lifting to 4.2 percent, AHE at plus 0.1 percent) walks December back through 72 percent. The May two-month back-revision and the June one-month back-revision publish alongside the July initial print at the same 8:30 ET stamp.

Aug 5 DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, BLS Productivity and Costs Q2 2026 preliminary, BLS Employment Situation July preview, CME FedWatch Wednesday close August 5, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 thursday-openjobless-claims

Thursday August 6: weekly initial jobless claims and Q2 preliminary nonfarm productivity at 8:30 ET, the last labor-side prints before Friday's July nonfarm payrolls

US cash Treasury opens Thursday August 6 into weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 ET and Q2 preliminary nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs at 8:30 ET, the two 8:30 ET labor-side prints that carry the last position the strip sets before Friday August 7's July nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 ET. Initial claims at 228 thousand last week held the twelve-month range midpoint. Q1 nonfarm productivity at plus 1.7 percent carried the productivity offset the services-inflation last-mile stall has been running against. The Thursday combination locks the position Friday's July NFP reprices from.

Aug 4 ADP National Employment Report July release August 5, ISM Services PMI July release August 5, CME FedWatch Tuesday close August 4, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026, BLS Employment Situation July preview wednesday-openadp

Wednesday August 5: July ADP employment at 8:15 ET and July ISM services PMI at 10 ET, breadth test on Monday's ISM manufacturing surprise ahead of Friday's July NFP

US cash Treasury opens Wednesday August 5 into the July ADP employment report at 8:15 ET and the July ISM services PMI at 10 ET, the breadth read on Monday's July ISM manufacturing print at 55.6 that walked the December 10 second cut probability from 72 percent Friday to 58 percent Monday close. June ADP printed 119 thousand and June ISM services headline held 50.8 with prices paid at 66.9, the highest services prices-paid read since November 2022. The Wednesday combination sets the position the strip carries into Friday's July nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 ET and resolves whether Monday's ISM manufacturing surprise reads as breadth across the service side or as a one-off goods print.

Aug 3 ISM Manufacturing PMI July 2026 headline 55.6, BLS JOLTS June release August 4, US Census Bureau Factory Orders June release August 4, CME FedWatch Monday close August 3, Federal Reserve FOMC calendar 2026 tuesday-openism-manufacturing

Tuesday August 4: Monday's ISM manufacturing at 55.6 blows the 49 to 51 band and walks back the two-cut year, June JOLTS and June factory orders at 10 ET

US cash Treasury opens Tuesday August 4 into the June JOLTS release at 10 ET and June factory orders at 10 ET, first data prints after Monday's ISM manufacturing PMI at 55.6 blew the 49.0 to 51.0 band the strip carried and put the December second cut back on the table for reprice. The July ISM production sub-index at 58.5 (from 51.4) and the employment sub-index at 52.8 (from 44.2, first expansion print in fifteen months) walked the December second cut probability from 72 percent Friday to 58 percent Monday close through fed-funds futures. The 10 ET JOLTS print and the 10 ET factory orders print set the position the strip carries into Wednesday's ADP and July ISM services and Friday's July nonfarm payrolls.

Aug 2 ISM Manufacturing PMI July, US Census Bureau Construction Spending June, BLS Employment Situation July preview, CME FedWatch Friday close August 1, Federal Reserve FOMC statement July 30 2026 monday-openweek-ahead

Monday August 3: Week ahead, July NFP Friday, July ISM manufacturing PMI at 10 ET, first data week after the July 30 FOMC hold

US cash Treasury opens Monday August 3 with July ISM manufacturing PMI at 10 ET and June construction spending at 10 ET, opening the first data week after the July 30 FOMC hold and running into July nonfarm payrolls Friday. The July 30 statement held the target range at 4.25 to 4.50 percent as priced 99 percent, and Powell in the 2:30 ET press conference confirmed the September 17 cut path is live. Fed-funds futures held the September cut at 99 percent and lifted the December 10 second cut to 72 percent at Friday's close, up five points on the week. This week resolves whether the two-cut year priced in the strip carries into August tape or repositions on a soft July NFP.

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