The one line the tape reads on durable goods day
Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft is the core capex read, and its shipments twin feeds the equipment-investment line of GDP.
The FOMC blackout: what stops for ten days, what keeps trading, and how the strip re-prices when the mic opens back up
The Federal Reserve enforces a ten-day communications blackout around every scheduled FOMC meeting. The rule removes committee members from the public tape starting the second Saturday before the meeting and ending the Thursday after. What stops is speeches, interviews, and press appearances by voting and non-voting officials. What keeps trading is auctions, data releases, and fed-funds futures. The strip repositions on the residual signal the two live inputs still provide: the schedule of Treasury supply and the incoming print calendar.
Bid-to-cover and the tail: how to read a Treasury auction stop in five numbers
Every US Treasury coupon auction closes with five numbers that decide whether the strip reads the stop as strong, average, or fade: the high yield, the bid-to-cover ratio, the tail versus the when-issued yield, the indirect bidder share, and the primary dealer take. Together they tell you how deep the demand ran and where the residual duration sat down.
The LEI diffusion index and the 47 recession signal
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index prints a headline number every month, but the line the recession callers watch is the six-month diffusion of the ten components under 50, with 47 as the historical signal.
@% publishes short macroeconomic articles. The number, the context, why it moved. Most macro journalism buries one data point under fifteen paragraphs. We do the opposite. Published by AT Media Group. No stock picks. No padding.